Analyst Showdown: Mining Giants Clash as Profits Plunge, Optimism Tested

Paul Riverbank, 2/9/2026Australia’s mining sector faces mixed analyst signals as rising revenues clash with falling profits, leaving investors watching closely. Diverging outlooks on Bellevue, Aeris, and Ramelius reflect broader uncertainty—reminding us that strong numbers don’t always guarantee clear skies ahead.

Start with Bellevue Gold Limited. Macquarie’s Adam Baker, who has quietly built up a reputation as a market watcher with an eye for opportune moments (a 13% average return and a better-than-a-coin-toss success rate will do that), hasn’t budged from his Buy stance. His latest target: A$2.10, a figure that stands out mostly for its conviction. Not far behind, UBS’s Levi Spry weighed in with a similar recommendation back in February, lending the stock an unusual twin endorsement from two heavyweights—not something you see every week.

Yet the excitement tapers when you dig into the earnings report. Bellevue’s top line looks healthy enough, hitting A$283.5 million for the latest quarter—noticeably up from last year. But luster fades quickly with one glance at the bottom line: a turn from a solid A$73.23 million net profit last year to a stinging A$57.95 million loss this quarter. It’s the kind of result that has some, including TipRanks’ Google team, hesitant. They held Bellevue at Hold, pushing back against a wave of optimism. In this corner of the market, revenue alone is not enough; it’s profits, not promises, that settle debates.

Contrast this with the narrative emerging around Aeris Resources Limited, which seems to be clawing its way out of a difficult stretch. Macquarie remained upbeat here too, assigning a price target of A$0.70, while TipRanks - DeepSeek echoed that with a Buy of their own. Curiously, another desk inside TipRanks—this time working under the OpenAI brand—opted for caution, sticking with Hold. The numbers for Aeris, at least, point to genuine progress. Their quarterly revenue climbed to A$284.32 million (last year was A$253.71 million), and instead of last year's net loss of A$5.5 million, the company posted a net profit of A$15.62 million. A turnaround story, if not a full comeback—investors love that kind of momentum, so long as it isn’t an illusion.

Then there’s Ramelius Resources Limited, sitting uncomfortably in the middle. Adam Baker (once again, Macquarie) and Levi Spry (UBS) both prefer to wait and see, both keeping Ramelius at Hold, with Baker’s target set at A$4.80. Shaw and Partners, though, aren’t quite ready to be so cautious and are still calling for a Buy, suggesting they see an upside missed by the others. Ramelius is hardly a small fish—market cap of A$8.35 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio a hair under 11—but no groundswell of support just yet. You sense that analysts are waiting for something a little more definitive—a fresh catalyst, perhaps, or signs that recent growth isn’t just a blip.

Read between the lines, and what emerges is a sector still searching for its narrative. Some companies are raking in more revenue, but for at least one, profits have evaporated even as sales run higher. Others, formerly stuck in the red, are signaling they might just be getting their act together. It’s whiplash for anyone hoping for a clear verdict.

So, where does that leave investors and other observers? With mining stocks wriggling between optimism and prudence, the best advice is the oldest: pay attention to the fundamentals, certainly, but never lose sight of the context that shapes them. Rising revenues are good, sure, but the real story unfolds in how those raw numbers are converted into enduring, hard-earned profits. The wise will watch not just the analyst ratings, but the narrative—hidden in the margins—behind each company’s bottom line.

Mixed messages have become something of a theme in Australia’s mining sector as of late, with leading analysts sending the market into a state bordering on confusion. This isn’t simply a story of numbers, but rather of differing perspectives interpreting those numbers—and the policies, plans and quirks behind them.Start with Bellevue Gold Limited. Macquarie’s Adam Baker, who has quietly built up a reputation as a market watcher with an eye for opportune moments (a 13% average return and a better-than-a-coin-toss success rate will do that), hasn’t budged from his Buy stance. His latest target: A$2.10, a figure that stands out mostly for its conviction. Not far behind, UBS’s Levi Spry weighed in with a similar recommendation back in February, lending the stock an unusual twin endorsement from two heavyweights—not something you see every week.Yet the excitement tapers when you dig into the earnings report. Bellevue’s top line looks healthy enough, hitting A$283.5 million for the latest quarter—noticeably up from last year. But luster fades quickly with one glance at the bottom line: a turn from a solid A$73.23 million net profit last year to a stinging A$57.95 million loss this quarter. It’s the kind of result that has some, including TipRanks’ Google team, hesitant. They held Bellevue at Hold, pushing back against a wave of optimism. In this corner of the market, revenue alone is not enough; it’s profits, not promises, that settle debates.Contrast this with the narrative emerging around Aeris Resources Limited, which seems to be clawing its way out of a difficult stretch. Macquarie remained upbeat here too, assigning a price target of A$0.70, while TipRanks - DeepSeek echoed that with a Buy of their own. Curiously, another desk inside TipRanks—this time working under the OpenAI brand—opted for caution, sticking with Hold. The numbers for Aeris, at least, point to genuine progress. Their quarterly revenue climbed to A$284.32 million (last year was A$253.71 million), and instead of last year's net loss of A$5.5 million, the company posted a net profit of A$15.62 million. A turnaround story, if not a full comeback—investors love that kind of momentum, so long as it isn’t an illusion.Then there’s Ramelius Resources Limited, sitting uncomfortably in the middle. Adam Baker (once again, Macquarie) and Levi Spry (UBS) both prefer to wait and see, both keeping Ramelius at Hold, with Baker’s target set at A$4.80. Shaw and Partners, though, aren’t quite ready to be so cautious and are still calling for a Buy, suggesting they see an upside missed by the others. Ramelius is hardly a small fish—market cap of A$8.35 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio a hair under 11—but no groundswell of support just yet. You sense that analysts are waiting for something a little more definitive—a fresh catalyst, perhaps, or signs that recent growth isn’t just a blip.Read between the lines, and what emerges is a sector still searching for its narrative. Some companies are raking in more revenue, but for at least one, profits have evaporated even as sales run higher. Others, formerly stuck in the red, are signaling they might just be getting their act together. It’s whiplash for anyone hoping for a clear verdict.So, where does that leave investors and other observers? With mining stocks wriggling between optimism and prudence, the best advice is the oldest: pay attention to the fundamentals, certainly, but never lose sight of the context that shapes them. Rising revenues are good, sure, but the real story unfolds in how those raw numbers are converted into enduring, hard-earned profits. The wise will watch not just the analyst ratings, but the narrative—hidden in the margins—behind each company’s bottom line.