Biden’s Border Surge Unleashes Housing Crisis, American Families Squeezed

Paul Riverbank, 12/11/2025America’s rental market is under strain, with foreign-born arrivals fueling historic demand. Policy, supply, and subsidies collide, making homes dearer. While politicians debate causes, millions feel the squeeze, facing rising rents and limited options.

Here’s where the data gets eye-opening: since 2021, the foreign-born population shot up by over six million. According to the latest reading from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, immigration isn’t just a piece of the rental demand puzzle; in some places, it’s the entire puzzle. Think about regions where every single uptick in demand traces directly back to immigrants. Nationally, two out of every three new renters come from abroad. That’s not speculation—HUD’s analysis lays it out without much room for debate.

If you narrow your gaze to California and New York, the trend stands out. In both states, immigrants are responsible for all recent rental growth, and more than half the growth in homeownership comes from the same group. In plain terms, just about every fresh lease inked in these states is tied to a new arrival. Since the turn of the millennium, the foreign-born share of the population has climbed by 40 percent—adding 20 million people. It doesn’t take an economist to connect those dots to rising prices.

For renters, the story plays out on tighter budgets. The average lease cost jumped from just under $1,200 in 2021 to nearly $1,400 by 2023. That’s somewhere in the ballpark of 18 percent in two short years. Stretch that over a family’s paycheck, and the numbers start to hurt: more than half of what’s earned, handed over each month simply to keep a roof overhead. And the trend doesn’t appear to be fading. Between 2019 and 2023, noncitizen households accounted for a 13 percent share of new household growth, compared to just 7 percent in the years before. It’s a sharp uptick, and the affordable end of the market is feeling the pressure most.

Housing Secretary Scott Turner hasn’t shied away from pointing out the challenge. As he put it in a recent statement, “When you have over 12 million people coming over our borders, unchecked, unvetted, this is straining our housing market from a supply standpoint, from an affordability standpoint.” His message: don’t underestimate immigration's effect on prices and availability, especially when there’s already not enough to go around.

But to call immigration the whole story is to miss the forest for the trees. The U.S. housing market is shaped by much more than just changing demographics. Government loan subsidies, persistent inflation, and the ripples from pandemic relief all factor in. Decades of policy have aimed to make mortgages more accessible, sometimes letting buyers take riskier bets and push prices up for everyone else. Consider Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: by insuring riskier loans, they’ve arguably given buyers more firepower—often at the expense of stability.

It doesn’t help that well-meaning government programs occasionally backfire. Take the latest proposal from Senator Elizabeth Warren, which is pitched as an answer to soaring housing costs: more federal aid, more building incentives, more grants. Yet, critics worry it treats high prices as a simple supply problem, not as a possible bubble fueled by over-easy credit and public subsidies. Some warn these policies could inject even more inflation into one of the nation’s most overheated markets.

On the ground, the impact plays out in unambiguous ways. In a suburb outside Richmond, Virginia, one local recounted the jolt when the federal government moved to subsidize rents as part of a resettlement initiative. “All of a sudden, landlords realized they could get more, so they raised rents for everyone,” she said. “Our rent shot up, just like that. People who'd lived here for years found themselves priced out overnight.”

So where does this all leave American families? In a bind that’s increasingly hard to solve. Caught between relentless rent hikes, a shortfall in homes, and the crosscurrents of national debate, many feel powerless. Secretary Turner has called for lower federal interest rates and tougher enforcement against illegal immigration, believing that would relieve some pressure. Others press for expanded subsidies or zoning reforms, arguing more support is needed—though those calls draw skepticism from groups who fear a repeat of past bubbles.

If there’s one thing both sides agree on, it’s this: finding blame is easier than finding consensus. Is the problem too many people, not enough houses, misguided policy, or all of the above? While experts and lawmakers trade theories, the market keeps moving under its own relentless logic. For the millions fighting to stay ahead of rising rents each month, it’s often less about big-picture politics and more about the hard question of where they’ll be living next year.

Numbers often grab the headlines, but the real contours of America’s rental squeeze are written in the daily churn of families on the hunt for homes they can actually afford. In recent years, the surge in demand for rentals has been unmistakable—and in large part, it’s foreign-born newcomers helping to drive the shift. Dig a little deeper, however, and you’ll find a web of policy choices, market quirks, and old-fashioned supply shortages all tangled together.Here’s where the data gets eye-opening: since 2021, the foreign-born population shot up by over six million. According to the latest reading from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, immigration isn’t just a piece of the rental demand puzzle; in some places, it’s the entire puzzle. Think about regions where every single uptick in demand traces directly back to immigrants. Nationally, two out of every three new renters come from abroad. That’s not speculation—HUD’s analysis lays it out without much room for debate.If you narrow your gaze to California and New York, the trend stands out. In both states, immigrants are responsible for all recent rental growth, and more than half the growth in homeownership comes from the same group. In plain terms, just about every fresh lease inked in these states is tied to a new arrival. Since the turn of the millennium, the foreign-born share of the population has climbed by 40 percent—adding 20 million people. It doesn’t take an economist to connect those dots to rising prices.For renters, the story plays out on tighter budgets. The average lease cost jumped from just under $1,200 in 2021 to nearly $1,400 by 2023. That’s somewhere in the ballpark of 18 percent in two short years. Stretch that over a family’s paycheck, and the numbers start to hurt: more than half of what’s earned, handed over each month simply to keep a roof overhead. And the trend doesn’t appear to be fading. Between 2019 and 2023, noncitizen households accounted for a 13 percent share of new household growth, compared to just 7 percent in the years before. It’s a sharp uptick, and the affordable end of the market is feeling the pressure most.Housing Secretary Scott Turner hasn’t shied away from pointing out the challenge. As he put it in a recent statement, “When you have over 12 million people coming over our borders, unchecked, unvetted, this is straining our housing market from a supply standpoint, from an affordability standpoint.” His message: don’t underestimate immigration's effect on prices and availability, especially when there’s already not enough to go around.But to call immigration the whole story is to miss the forest for the trees. The U.S. housing market is shaped by much more than just changing demographics. Government loan subsidies, persistent inflation, and the ripples from pandemic relief all factor in. Decades of policy have aimed to make mortgages more accessible, sometimes letting buyers take riskier bets and push prices up for everyone else. Consider Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: by insuring riskier loans, they’ve arguably given buyers more firepower—often at the expense of stability.It doesn’t help that well-meaning government programs occasionally backfire. Take the latest proposal from Senator Elizabeth Warren, which is pitched as an answer to soaring housing costs: more federal aid, more building incentives, more grants. Yet, critics worry it treats high prices as a simple supply problem, not as a possible bubble fueled by over-easy credit and public subsidies. Some warn these policies could inject even more inflation into one of the nation’s most overheated markets.On the ground, the impact plays out in unambiguous ways. In a suburb outside Richmond, Virginia, one local recounted the jolt when the federal government moved to subsidize rents as part of a resettlement initiative. “All of a sudden, landlords realized they could get more, so they raised rents for everyone,” she said. “Our rent shot up, just like that. People who'd lived here for years found themselves priced out overnight.”So where does this all leave American families? In a bind that’s increasingly hard to solve. Caught between relentless rent hikes, a shortfall in homes, and the crosscurrents of national debate, many feel powerless. Secretary Turner has called for lower federal interest rates and tougher enforcement against illegal immigration, believing that would relieve some pressure. Others press for expanded subsidies or zoning reforms, arguing more support is needed—though those calls draw skepticism from groups who fear a repeat of past bubbles.If there’s one thing both sides agree on, it’s this: finding blame is easier than finding consensus. Is the problem too many people, not enough houses, misguided policy, or all of the above? While experts and lawmakers trade theories, the market keeps moving under its own relentless logic. For the millions fighting to stay ahead of rising rents each month, it’s often less about big-picture politics and more about the hard question of where they’ll be living next year.