Blue Meltdown: Democrats’ Approval Hits Rock Bottom After Shutdown Surrender

Paul Riverbank, 12/19/2025 Congressional Democrats face historic disapproval, with a fractured base and plummeting support even among loyalists. As midterms approach, these numbers signal unrest and vulnerability, highlighting that recent electoral victories offer little protection from deepening dissatisfaction within and beyond the party.

CNN’s Harry Enten, never one to sugarcoat, put it bluntly: “Democrats, in the minds of the American public, are lower than the Dead Sea.” Hard not to wince at that. The data justify the sting. Congressional Democrats are sitting on their worst approval numbers in over sixteen years—an erosion not just in the distant memory, but in real time. Just last autumn, support among their own base stood at a comfortable +22. By now, after a government shutdown that left nobody satisfied, they’ve plummeted to -6. That’s twenty-eight points lost in just a few weeks—a speed and severity that’s rare in congressional politics.

But numbers alone—harsh as they are—don’t tell the whole story. This isn’t about a single bad poll, or some blip driven by an offhand scandal. It’s that sense of confidence quietly, then suddenly, evaporating. In fact, congressional Democrats aren’t just struggling with the overall electorate; they’re facing fracture lines within their own circles. After the shutdown, many loyal Democrats were left questioning what their party stood for—especially after leaders ended the standoff without clinching any real policy victories.

Drilling down further, independents are in even darker spirits. Their opinion? Grim. Democrats are underwater by 61 points in this slice of the poll—the largest abyss since these numbers have been tracked. For any party that needs swing voters to stay afloat, that’s equating to a life raft riddled with holes.

Now, before anyone on the other side of the aisle gets too smug, it’s worth noting House Republicans aren’t getting a ticker-tape parade either. Their net approval checks in at -23—nothing to frame for the office wall. But difference matters: GOP leaders are still well-liked in their own camp, registering a stunning +59 with fellow Republicans, while Democratic confidence in their own team slips. This kind of internal erosion makes a dangerous cocktail for any party facing a turnout test.

For anyone with a sense of political memory: compare this moment to the past. Twice since 2005, Democrats ran over 10 points ahead on the generic congressional ballot with a Republican president in the White House. Today? Their lead is just four, barely half the 2017-2018 pre-midterm tally during Trump’s presidency, and way off the pace from the George W. Bush era. For a party hoping to surf to victory, this is barely keeping head above water.

Yet, here’s the wrinkle—none of this is destiny written in stone. If there’s anything veteran observers have learned, it’s that volatility is baked into American politics. A news cycle can swing opinion. A mistake, a speech, a breakthrough: all can jolt the numbers with little warning.

Still, as midterms roll closer, these numbers aren’t to be shrugged off. They’re a red flare in the night—a signal, not a verdict. Democratic leaders may want to take comfort in past victories, but ignoring this data would be misreading the electorate’s restlessness. The party has months, not years, to shore up wounded confidence, clarify its message, and, frankly, rebuild the bond with discouraged supporters. If history tells us anything, it’s that the crowd doesn’t wait forever. And 2026 will demand more than hope and happy talk to deliver the results the party promises.

Picture this: In the recent Quinnipiac poll, the numbers clattered onto Democratic leaders’ desks like a winter storm. For congressional Democrats, the figures didn’t just raise eyebrows—they sent a chill down the spine of the party’s strategists, who, until a few months ago, were still basking in the post-election afterglow. Now, “dead in the water” isn’t just an expression—it’s a sensation felt up and down the party’s ranks.CNN’s Harry Enten, never one to sugarcoat, put it bluntly: “Democrats, in the minds of the American public, are lower than the Dead Sea.” Hard not to wince at that. The data justify the sting. Congressional Democrats are sitting on their worst approval numbers in over sixteen years—an erosion not just in the distant memory, but in real time. Just last autumn, support among their own base stood at a comfortable +22. By now, after a government shutdown that left nobody satisfied, they’ve plummeted to -6. That’s twenty-eight points lost in just a few weeks—a speed and severity that’s rare in congressional politics.But numbers alone—harsh as they are—don’t tell the whole story. This isn’t about a single bad poll, or some blip driven by an offhand scandal. It’s that sense of confidence quietly, then suddenly, evaporating. In fact, congressional Democrats aren’t just struggling with the overall electorate; they’re facing fracture lines within their own circles. After the shutdown, many loyal Democrats were left questioning what their party stood for—especially after leaders ended the standoff without clinching any real policy victories.Drilling down further, independents are in even darker spirits. Their opinion? Grim. Democrats are underwater by 61 points in this slice of the poll—the largest abyss since these numbers have been tracked. For any party that needs swing voters to stay afloat, that’s equating to a life raft riddled with holes.Now, before anyone on the other side of the aisle gets too smug, it’s worth noting House Republicans aren’t getting a ticker-tape parade either. Their net approval checks in at -23—nothing to frame for the office wall. But difference matters: GOP leaders are still well-liked in their own camp, registering a stunning +59 with fellow Republicans, while Democratic confidence in their own team slips. This kind of internal erosion makes a dangerous cocktail for any party facing a turnout test.For anyone with a sense of political memory: compare this moment to the past. Twice since 2005, Democrats ran over 10 points ahead on the generic congressional ballot with a Republican president in the White House. Today? Their lead is just four, barely half the 2017-2018 pre-midterm tally during Trump’s presidency, and way off the pace from the George W. Bush era. For a party hoping to surf to victory, this is barely keeping head above water.Yet, here’s the wrinkle—none of this is destiny written in stone. If there’s anything veteran observers have learned, it’s that volatility is baked into American politics. A news cycle can swing opinion. A mistake, a speech, a breakthrough: all can jolt the numbers with little warning.Still, as midterms roll closer, these numbers aren’t to be shrugged off. They’re a red flare in the night—a signal, not a verdict. Democratic leaders may want to take comfort in past victories, but ignoring this data would be misreading the electorate’s restlessness. The party has months, not years, to shore up wounded confidence, clarify its message, and, frankly, rebuild the bond with discouraged supporters. If history tells us anything, it’s that the crowd doesn’t wait forever. And 2026 will demand more than hope and happy talk to deliver the results the party promises.