Booming Economy, Gloomy Headlines: Who’s Telling America the Truth?

Paul Riverbank, 2/4/2026America’s economy thrives, but headlines and trust deficits fuel ongoing public skepticism and anxiety.

Former President Trump, never one to shy away from self-congratulation, has been eager to trumpet the numbers. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he confidently announced that inflation had faded to near invisibility, with grocery bills supposedly on the decline. That’s a stretch, to put it mildly. While the worst of the inflationary storm has abated—no one will soon forget the sticker shock of 2022 and early 2023—the Federal Reserve still has work to do before reaching its 2 percent goal. Eggs might be a bit cheaper this month, and gas prices have taken a breather, but overall, most people are still digging deeper into their wallets at the checkout line.

Not that Trump’s backers are entirely wrong in their optimism. The broader storyline, if you grab a long enough lens, is robust: trade and fiscal deficits on the mend, economic growth well above the recent post-recession average, energy production setting fresh records. His supporters argue, perhaps not unreasonably, that these are achievements worth a standing ovation. But Trump’s characteristic hyperbole sometimes muddies the waters, inadvertently energizing those critics who’d rather focus solely on the storm clouds.

Democrats, meanwhile, put forward their own narrative. They remind anyone within earshot that they inherited an economy flat on its back and managed to revive it. Critics retort, though, that massive government spending fueled not just recovery but also an unwelcome surge in inflation—approaching 9 percent at one point—the kind of inflation that squeezes the professional class and hourly workers alike, evoking comparisons to the tough years after the 2008 crash.

If that weren’t complicated enough, the coverage Americans absorb daily tends to dwell on what hasn’t been fixed. Headlines lean critical and stories zero in on stubbornly rising costs. When analysts speculate about upcoming headwinds—new tariffs, the unforeseen consequences of AI, geopolitical entanglements—it chips away at the fragile bulwark of consumer confidence. And, as one seasoned observer noted, you might as well pack up the cash registers if faith in the economy dries up: “Confidence sinks and the consumer retrenches, torpedoing growth.”

Part of the public wariness, it seems, isn’t just about data but trust. Consider the recent dust-up over the Federal Reserve’s leadership. Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair drew dire media warnings; disaster was all but prophesied. Yet the markets—far less sentimental and much swifter to judge—saw things differently. Gold and silver, which had been tracking upward on the back of inflation anxiety, plummeted: a 31 percent drop in silver and 11 percent in gold. For Wall Street, Warsh wasn’t a rubber stamp, but a sober “hawk” willing to keep a tight rein on policy.

On Main Street, signals skewed positive, too. The National Federation of Independent Business—a bellwether for America’s small companies—recently reported its confidence index reached nearly 100, the best in over half a century. Uncertainty among business owners was ebbing, not rising. Corporate bankers echoed these findings: upticks in hiring plans, commitment to capital spending, a general belief that tomorrow could be better than today. It’s not the picture you’d draw from a doom-and-gloom broadcast.

Nevertheless, worries flock like birds ahead of a storm. Technology—AI in particular—is rewriting rules at dizzying speed, creating a blend of opportunity and nervousness. Market choppiness lately has reflected fears about tight margins for tech giants as the playing field gets less predictable. Meanwhile, longstanding threats haven’t faded. U.S. tensions with Iran, for instance, have made precious metals dance on a string and rattled global nerves.

Central bankers are watching all of this closely, if not nervously. Australia, usually a step ahead with monetary policy, has nudged interest rates higher—an omen, some say, for what may come stateside if prices heat up again.

Trump’s economic program leans heavily on classic conservative tenets: lower taxes, relentless deregulation, and a bullish embrace of domestic energy. Critics say this playbook pads the accounts of the well-to-do and leaves environmental concerns in the lurch. His defenders counter that big, blue cities, governed by Democrats and brimming with red tape, are precisely where it costs the most to live and work. Take your pick; the rhetorical crossfire is unrelenting.

Stepping away from the shouting matches, the average American consumer remains surprisingly—perhaps admirably—upbeat. The holiday season saw spending surpass expectations. Paychecks, measured in real terms, are rising. Stock indices have been setting new highs. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, no cheerleader by nature, has called the labor market “stable, if not booming.”

But public anxiety doesn’t disappear overnight. Ask around, and you’ll find that apprehension often springs not from what’s happening now, but from a sense that the next downturn is lurking around the corner. Those tuned to progressive news sources may well find this unease amplified. Nightly segments cite the menace of tariffs, warnings of AI-triggered job losses, and a near-constant stream of caution about what tomorrow might bring.

Step away from the din, and a survey of the landscape reveals a mix of promise and imperfection. Gasoline prices are down over 7 percent year-on-year. Mortgage rates, once pushing the limits, have eased off slightly. Investors around the globe keep finding reasons to bet on the U.S., even as new technologies hint at another productivity wave ahead—one that could put more money in workers’ pockets while dampening inflation.

If Trump and his circle want credit for these positive developments, there is a clear path: keep to the facts. Show Americans the genuine progress, acknowledge lingering obstacles, and steer clear of overstatement. Trust, so central to the political and economic conversation, is rebuilt day by day—one honest assessment at a time.

Americans are facing a riddle of perception when it comes to the economy. Look at the latest reports and you’ll see GDP accelerating beyond 4 percent, investment climbing, and wages inching higher. Yet, pollsters don’t need to dig deep to discover unease just below the surface. For all the positive indicators, skepticism lingers. You hear it at kitchen tables and on talk shows, with fingers pointed at both media outlets and politicians.Former President Trump, never one to shy away from self-congratulation, has been eager to trumpet the numbers. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, he confidently announced that inflation had faded to near invisibility, with grocery bills supposedly on the decline. That’s a stretch, to put it mildly. While the worst of the inflationary storm has abated—no one will soon forget the sticker shock of 2022 and early 2023—the Federal Reserve still has work to do before reaching its 2 percent goal. Eggs might be a bit cheaper this month, and gas prices have taken a breather, but overall, most people are still digging deeper into their wallets at the checkout line.Not that Trump’s backers are entirely wrong in their optimism. The broader storyline, if you grab a long enough lens, is robust: trade and fiscal deficits on the mend, economic growth well above the recent post-recession average, energy production setting fresh records. His supporters argue, perhaps not unreasonably, that these are achievements worth a standing ovation. But Trump’s characteristic hyperbole sometimes muddies the waters, inadvertently energizing those critics who’d rather focus solely on the storm clouds.Democrats, meanwhile, put forward their own narrative. They remind anyone within earshot that they inherited an economy flat on its back and managed to revive it. Critics retort, though, that massive government spending fueled not just recovery but also an unwelcome surge in inflation—approaching 9 percent at one point—the kind of inflation that squeezes the professional class and hourly workers alike, evoking comparisons to the tough years after the 2008 crash.If that weren’t complicated enough, the coverage Americans absorb daily tends to dwell on what hasn’t been fixed. Headlines lean critical and stories zero in on stubbornly rising costs. When analysts speculate about upcoming headwinds—new tariffs, the unforeseen consequences of AI, geopolitical entanglements—it chips away at the fragile bulwark of consumer confidence. And, as one seasoned observer noted, you might as well pack up the cash registers if faith in the economy dries up: “Confidence sinks and the consumer retrenches, torpedoing growth.”Part of the public wariness, it seems, isn’t just about data but trust. Consider the recent dust-up over the Federal Reserve’s leadership. Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair drew dire media warnings; disaster was all but prophesied. Yet the markets—far less sentimental and much swifter to judge—saw things differently. Gold and silver, which had been tracking upward on the back of inflation anxiety, plummeted: a 31 percent drop in silver and 11 percent in gold. For Wall Street, Warsh wasn’t a rubber stamp, but a sober “hawk” willing to keep a tight rein on policy.On Main Street, signals skewed positive, too. The National Federation of Independent Business—a bellwether for America’s small companies—recently reported its confidence index reached nearly 100, the best in over half a century. Uncertainty among business owners was ebbing, not rising. Corporate bankers echoed these findings: upticks in hiring plans, commitment to capital spending, a general belief that tomorrow could be better than today. It’s not the picture you’d draw from a doom-and-gloom broadcast.Nevertheless, worries flock like birds ahead of a storm. Technology—AI in particular—is rewriting rules at dizzying speed, creating a blend of opportunity and nervousness. Market choppiness lately has reflected fears about tight margins for tech giants as the playing field gets less predictable. Meanwhile, longstanding threats haven’t faded. U.S. tensions with Iran, for instance, have made precious metals dance on a string and rattled global nerves.Central bankers are watching all of this closely, if not nervously. Australia, usually a step ahead with monetary policy, has nudged interest rates higher—an omen, some say, for what may come stateside if prices heat up again.Trump’s economic program leans heavily on classic conservative tenets: lower taxes, relentless deregulation, and a bullish embrace of domestic energy. Critics say this playbook pads the accounts of the well-to-do and leaves environmental concerns in the lurch. His defenders counter that big, blue cities, governed by Democrats and brimming with red tape, are precisely where it costs the most to live and work. Take your pick; the rhetorical crossfire is unrelenting.Stepping away from the shouting matches, the average American consumer remains surprisingly—perhaps admirably—upbeat. The holiday season saw spending surpass expectations. Paychecks, measured in real terms, are rising. Stock indices have been setting new highs. Even Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, no cheerleader by nature, has called the labor market “stable, if not booming.”But public anxiety doesn’t disappear overnight. Ask around, and you’ll find that apprehension often springs not from what’s happening now, but from a sense that the next downturn is lurking around the corner. Those tuned to progressive news sources may well find this unease amplified. Nightly segments cite the menace of tariffs, warnings of AI-triggered job losses, and a near-constant stream of caution about what tomorrow might bring.Step away from the din, and a survey of the landscape reveals a mix of promise and imperfection. Gasoline prices are down over 7 percent year-on-year. Mortgage rates, once pushing the limits, have eased off slightly. Investors around the globe keep finding reasons to bet on the U.S., even as new technologies hint at another productivity wave ahead—one that could put more money in workers’ pockets while dampening inflation.If Trump and his circle want credit for these positive developments, there is a clear path: keep to the facts. Show Americans the genuine progress, acknowledge lingering obstacles, and steer clear of overstatement. Trust, so central to the political and economic conversation, is rebuilt day by day—one honest assessment at a time.