California Democrats in Chaos: Porter's Meltdown Sparks Stunning Primary Civil War

Paul Riverbank, 12/5/2025California's governor race devolves into chaos as frontrunners stumble, voters waver, and tensions rise.

Political watchers have seen this movie before: fresh face jumps in, shakes up the field, and suddenly yesterday’s headlines belong to someone else. Swalwell’s entry has done just that. He’s grabbed 20% in that same survey, enough to crowd Porter out of her comfort zone. Add billionaire-turned-climate-warrior Tom Steyer into the mix (always a wildcard with his deep pockets and relentless TV spots), and what was supposed to be a steady march toward a Democratic face-off has turned into something much messier.

If you ask California voters, many will admit they’re not ready to pick sides. Thirty-one percent are still on the fence, leaning in, waiting for reasons to care or recoil. That sense of uncertainty hovers over the entire contest. Even the Republicans—Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco (13%) and ex-Fox host Steve Hilton (12%)—are muddled in a muddle, their numbers close enough for late-night comedians to quip about recounts. Independents? Nearly half haven’t committed, almost professionally undecided, still sorting out the noise.

Here’s what’s telling: For a candidate who’s been in the public eye as much as Porter, she still can’t quite shake off her “maybe” status. Thirty-seven percent of voters say they just don’t have an opinion on her at all, while more people view her negatively (34%) than positively (30%). Recent headlines haven’t helped. Footage circulated online showing an exasperated Porter clashing with staff—a tough, not entirely flattering image when every candidate desperately needs likability points in a crowded race. Old stories of blunt treatment and short fuses have started sticking, the sort of baggage that’s hard to check at the campaign door.

Swalwell, almost effortlessly—though that’s never really true in politics—has edged ahead among Democrats (12% to Porter’s 11%), with others farther behind. Antonio Villaraigosa, once a staple in LA politics, trails at 5%. Steyer and Xavier Becerra each languish at 4%. So the pattern emerges: Democrats haven’t made up their minds, and it’s way too early to call anyone a lock for the nomination.

But let’s not forget the Republican turmoil. Despite Bianco’s slim lead (33% to Hilton’s 30% among GOP voters), no one is running away with it. These aren’t heady, hopeful numbers for a party hoping for a breakout in California. Conservative voters, as ever, appear wary—perhaps even more so now as the national party tilts and recalibrates. The state’s large, restless independent bloc remains untamed, a reminder that California campaigns age in dog years.

Meanwhile, Gov. Newsom is still very much a presence. His recent win with Proposition 50 boosted his public standing, nudging his approval rating up to 47%. Better yet for Newsom, he’s striking a chord with younger voters, leading among those under 40 by more than 20 points. It’s the kind of advantage most politicians would envy as they scan the horizon for their next act, which, for Newsom, might well be national.

Indeed, that Emerson survey tells us Newsom now leads the field of hypothetical Democratic presidential contenders for 2028, scoring 36%—a comfortable margin over Pete Buttigieg (16%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13%). Vice President Kamala Harris trails with only 9%, a surprisingly cool reception from her home state.

Over on the Republican bench, future plans seem equally unsettled but in different ways. J.D. Vance (the current vice president, as some readers may blink and realize) is the pick for more than half of surveyed Republicans—though if recent years have taught us anything, favorites can fade fast. Marco Rubio and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pick up some support, but the numbers drop off quickly.

Step back, and the common thread emerges: It’s the economy, stupid, all over again. Californians worry about paychecks and rent. A third identify the economy as their top issue, another quarter flag housing affordability. Most judge the state’s situation as mediocre to grim, and just over half place the blame squarely on Newsom’s administration. That said, there’s still a perplexing chunk—27%—who say it’s former President Trump’s fault, a reminder that every election in California is, in some sense, a flashpoint in the nation’s ongoing culture wars.

If you want to see this uncertainty taken to an even more feverish level, look to Michigan, where Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s pending exit has blown the race wide open for 2026. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads the pack for Democrats, drawing about 48% in her primary. But Congressman John James is almost equally strong on the Republican side—though party activists seem far from convinced, if the last straw poll at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference is any barometer.

What really tangles things in Michigan is the potential for Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, running as an independent after years on the Democratic side. Duggan doesn’t just attract swing voters; he pulls more from Democrats than Republicans, making him the kind of X-factor consultants both fear and daydream about.

It’s the same cocktail of frustration and anticipation: The economy and inflation dominate voter worries (36% say that’s their number one concern), but “threats to democracy,” crime, and health care carry weight too. The party split—36% Democrats, 36% Republicans, 28% independents—turns Michigan into a laboratory for modern American polarization.

For those betting on a sure thing this early, don’t. Candidates—on both coasts—are learning that status and star power aren’t enough. Voters want answers, authenticity, and a sense that their anxieties aren’t being glossed over with recycled slogans. In these races, a stutter on the debate stage, an unguarded remark caught on camera, or even a sudden shift in the national mood could reorder the entire board overnight. It’s not about being the favorite in April; it’s about surviving the scrambling months ahead.

Something curious is happening in the race to succeed Gavin Newsom as California’s governor. For months, former Congresswoman Katie Porter looked like the frontrunner, her name popping up in headlines almost as regularly as her much-discussed whiteboard shows up in memes. Yet, for all her internet moments, Porter’s command of the field is slipping—a recent Emerson College poll shows her now down to just 11%, practically neck-and-neck with her newly announced competitor, Eric Swalwell.Political watchers have seen this movie before: fresh face jumps in, shakes up the field, and suddenly yesterday’s headlines belong to someone else. Swalwell’s entry has done just that. He’s grabbed 20% in that same survey, enough to crowd Porter out of her comfort zone. Add billionaire-turned-climate-warrior Tom Steyer into the mix (always a wildcard with his deep pockets and relentless TV spots), and what was supposed to be a steady march toward a Democratic face-off has turned into something much messier.If you ask California voters, many will admit they’re not ready to pick sides. Thirty-one percent are still on the fence, leaning in, waiting for reasons to care or recoil. That sense of uncertainty hovers over the entire contest. Even the Republicans—Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco (13%) and ex-Fox host Steve Hilton (12%)—are muddled in a muddle, their numbers close enough for late-night comedians to quip about recounts. Independents? Nearly half haven’t committed, almost professionally undecided, still sorting out the noise.Here’s what’s telling: For a candidate who’s been in the public eye as much as Porter, she still can’t quite shake off her “maybe” status. Thirty-seven percent of voters say they just don’t have an opinion on her at all, while more people view her negatively (34%) than positively (30%). Recent headlines haven’t helped. Footage circulated online showing an exasperated Porter clashing with staff—a tough, not entirely flattering image when every candidate desperately needs likability points in a crowded race. Old stories of blunt treatment and short fuses have started sticking, the sort of baggage that’s hard to check at the campaign door.Swalwell, almost effortlessly—though that’s never really true in politics—has edged ahead among Democrats (12% to Porter’s 11%), with others farther behind. Antonio Villaraigosa, once a staple in LA politics, trails at 5%. Steyer and Xavier Becerra each languish at 4%. So the pattern emerges: Democrats haven’t made up their minds, and it’s way too early to call anyone a lock for the nomination.But let’s not forget the Republican turmoil. Despite Bianco’s slim lead (33% to Hilton’s 30% among GOP voters), no one is running away with it. These aren’t heady, hopeful numbers for a party hoping for a breakout in California. Conservative voters, as ever, appear wary—perhaps even more so now as the national party tilts and recalibrates. The state’s large, restless independent bloc remains untamed, a reminder that California campaigns age in dog years.Meanwhile, Gov. Newsom is still very much a presence. His recent win with Proposition 50 boosted his public standing, nudging his approval rating up to 47%. Better yet for Newsom, he’s striking a chord with younger voters, leading among those under 40 by more than 20 points. It’s the kind of advantage most politicians would envy as they scan the horizon for their next act, which, for Newsom, might well be national.Indeed, that Emerson survey tells us Newsom now leads the field of hypothetical Democratic presidential contenders for 2028, scoring 36%—a comfortable margin over Pete Buttigieg (16%) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13%). Vice President Kamala Harris trails with only 9%, a surprisingly cool reception from her home state.Over on the Republican bench, future plans seem equally unsettled but in different ways. J.D. Vance (the current vice president, as some readers may blink and realize) is the pick for more than half of surveyed Republicans—though if recent years have taught us anything, favorites can fade fast. Marco Rubio and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pick up some support, but the numbers drop off quickly.Step back, and the common thread emerges: It’s the economy, stupid, all over again. Californians worry about paychecks and rent. A third identify the economy as their top issue, another quarter flag housing affordability. Most judge the state’s situation as mediocre to grim, and just over half place the blame squarely on Newsom’s administration. That said, there’s still a perplexing chunk—27%—who say it’s former President Trump’s fault, a reminder that every election in California is, in some sense, a flashpoint in the nation’s ongoing culture wars.If you want to see this uncertainty taken to an even more feverish level, look to Michigan, where Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s pending exit has blown the race wide open for 2026. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads the pack for Democrats, drawing about 48% in her primary. But Congressman John James is almost equally strong on the Republican side—though party activists seem far from convinced, if the last straw poll at the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference is any barometer.What really tangles things in Michigan is the potential for Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, running as an independent after years on the Democratic side. Duggan doesn’t just attract swing voters; he pulls more from Democrats than Republicans, making him the kind of X-factor consultants both fear and daydream about.It’s the same cocktail of frustration and anticipation: The economy and inflation dominate voter worries (36% say that’s their number one concern), but “threats to democracy,” crime, and health care carry weight too. The party split—36% Democrats, 36% Republicans, 28% independents—turns Michigan into a laboratory for modern American polarization.For those betting on a sure thing this early, don’t. Candidates—on both coasts—are learning that status and star power aren’t enough. Voters want answers, authenticity, and a sense that their anxieties aren’t being glossed over with recycled slogans. In these races, a stutter on the debate stage, an unguarded remark caught on camera, or even a sudden shift in the national mood could reorder the entire board overnight. It’s not about being the favorite in April; it’s about surviving the scrambling months ahead.