California Democrats Meltdown: GOP Surges as Race Spins Out of Control

Paul Riverbank, 12/5/2025California's governor race unravels: Democrats falter, GOP rises, and undecided voters dominate the field.

Take Katie Porter. Not so long ago, her whiteboard interrogations on Capitol Hill seemed to telegraph big ambitions. Voters took notice; the pundit class took notice. But momentum, fickle as ever, has slipped from her grasp. She’s now hovering at 11 percent, per the latest Emerson College poll—a far cry from the confident leads she once enjoyed. And Porter isn’t alone in this freefall. Congress’s own Eric Swalwell, who joined the fray relatively late, has essentially matched her, each campaign shadowing the other as they jockey for the approval of a distracted electorate.

Across the aisle and county lines, two Republican names have managed to jostle near the top: Riverside County’s Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton—yes, the same one more familiar to Fox News viewers than to California’s sprawling electorate. Bianco edges out front, for now, but only barely; the polling gap between him and Hilton is thinner than an L.A. morning marine layer.

The real standout, oddly enough, isn’t a candidate at all. It’s uncertainty. More than three in ten voters haven’t settled on anyone—a reminder that while candidates issue policy papers and trade barbs, much of the state is only half-listening. Maybe even less. The numbers paint the picture: 31 percent of respondents are keeping their options open, or perhaps just tuning out entirely. If anything, that kind of idleness is the election’s defining energy so far.

Porter has become a case study in political whiplash. Not that long ago, her reputation—part reformer, part fighter—was largely untarnished. But the headlines can turn on a dime. A few sharp words caught on camera here, a leaked staff argument there, and suddenly, she’s battling a perception problem that shows up in hard data: 30 percent view her favorably, 34 percent don’t, and the rest seem undecided, if not uninformed. It’s a far cry from the solid support she built when her campaign first began, and perhaps proof that viral moments cut both ways in today’s politics.

Dig past the surface, and the rifts within each party become clearer. On the Democratic side, Swalwell’s narrow lead over Porter—12 percent to 11—feels, at best, tenuous. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is barely visible at 5 percent, and names like Tom Steyer or Xavier Becerra (polling at 4 apiece) look more like flashes in the pan than serious contenders.

Republicans, meanwhile, have their own problem: unity remains elusive. Bianco’s 33 percent and Hilton’s 30 percent, when looking just at GOP voters, suggest a divided house rather than any groundswell of common cause. Take nothing for granted, though; with so many undecided, the field could realign overnight.

Overshadowing it all, at least for now, is Gavin Newsom. The outgoing governor’s approval sits at 47 percent—a comfortable figure, but hardly invincible. Curiously, even his endorsement is a mixed blessing. For every voter inclined to follow his lead, another swears off a Newsom-aligned candidate. Most simply shrug: California, for all its fervor, is nothing if not unpredictable.

What’s playing out in California is no one-off, either. Over in Michigan, scramble is the order of the day as well. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Congressman John James barely outpace each other in early numbers; Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan lurks, upending Democratic calculations further. There, as here, a strong current of indecision shapes the forecast.

Back home, analysts expect more shuffling. There’s little reason to think anyone will run away with this race anytime soon. Candidates will try new tactics, voters may pay closer—or even less—attention, and those elusive poll numbers will shift again. For now, it’s the undecided, and perhaps the unengaged, who hold the real power. And as recent history shows, that’s a factor no campaign can afford to overlook, no matter how sharp their messaging, or how prominent their whiteboards.

There’s a peculiar kind of static in the air this year as California’s governor’s race unfolds—less like a typical campaign season, more like an overcrowded train station, with would-be frontrunners brushing past each other and no clear conductor in sight.Take Katie Porter. Not so long ago, her whiteboard interrogations on Capitol Hill seemed to telegraph big ambitions. Voters took notice; the pundit class took notice. But momentum, fickle as ever, has slipped from her grasp. She’s now hovering at 11 percent, per the latest Emerson College poll—a far cry from the confident leads she once enjoyed. And Porter isn’t alone in this freefall. Congress’s own Eric Swalwell, who joined the fray relatively late, has essentially matched her, each campaign shadowing the other as they jockey for the approval of a distracted electorate.Across the aisle and county lines, two Republican names have managed to jostle near the top: Riverside County’s Sheriff Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton—yes, the same one more familiar to Fox News viewers than to California’s sprawling electorate. Bianco edges out front, for now, but only barely; the polling gap between him and Hilton is thinner than an L.A. morning marine layer.The real standout, oddly enough, isn’t a candidate at all. It’s uncertainty. More than three in ten voters haven’t settled on anyone—a reminder that while candidates issue policy papers and trade barbs, much of the state is only half-listening. Maybe even less. The numbers paint the picture: 31 percent of respondents are keeping their options open, or perhaps just tuning out entirely. If anything, that kind of idleness is the election’s defining energy so far.Porter has become a case study in political whiplash. Not that long ago, her reputation—part reformer, part fighter—was largely untarnished. But the headlines can turn on a dime. A few sharp words caught on camera here, a leaked staff argument there, and suddenly, she’s battling a perception problem that shows up in hard data: 30 percent view her favorably, 34 percent don’t, and the rest seem undecided, if not uninformed. It’s a far cry from the solid support she built when her campaign first began, and perhaps proof that viral moments cut both ways in today’s politics.Dig past the surface, and the rifts within each party become clearer. On the Democratic side, Swalwell’s narrow lead over Porter—12 percent to 11—feels, at best, tenuous. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is barely visible at 5 percent, and names like Tom Steyer or Xavier Becerra (polling at 4 apiece) look more like flashes in the pan than serious contenders.Republicans, meanwhile, have their own problem: unity remains elusive. Bianco’s 33 percent and Hilton’s 30 percent, when looking just at GOP voters, suggest a divided house rather than any groundswell of common cause. Take nothing for granted, though; with so many undecided, the field could realign overnight.Overshadowing it all, at least for now, is Gavin Newsom. The outgoing governor’s approval sits at 47 percent—a comfortable figure, but hardly invincible. Curiously, even his endorsement is a mixed blessing. For every voter inclined to follow his lead, another swears off a Newsom-aligned candidate. Most simply shrug: California, for all its fervor, is nothing if not unpredictable.What’s playing out in California is no one-off, either. Over in Michigan, scramble is the order of the day as well. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Congressman John James barely outpace each other in early numbers; Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan lurks, upending Democratic calculations further. There, as here, a strong current of indecision shapes the forecast.Back home, analysts expect more shuffling. There’s little reason to think anyone will run away with this race anytime soon. Candidates will try new tactics, voters may pay closer—or even less—attention, and those elusive poll numbers will shift again. For now, it’s the undecided, and perhaps the unengaged, who hold the real power. And as recent history shows, that’s a factor no campaign can afford to overlook, no matter how sharp their messaging, or how prominent their whiteboards.