"Cubs' Costly Blunder: How Letting Kyle Schwarber Walk Became MLB's $100 Million Mistake"
Paul Riverbank, 1/12/2025The Chicago Cubs' decision to non-tender Kyle Schwarber in 2020 stands as a compelling example of short-sighted baseball management. Despite a challenging pandemic season, releasing a player who would go on to become one of baseball's premier leadoff hitters illustrates how snap judgments can haunt franchises for years to come.
In the ever-evolving landscape of Major League Baseball, few decisions have come back to haunt a franchise quite like the Chicago Cubs' choice to non-tender Kyle Schwarber after the 2020 season — a move that continues to cast a long shadow over the organization's recent history.
The decision, which ESPN's David Schoenfield recently highlighted as one of MLB's most significant missteps of the past half-decade, perfectly exemplifies how short-term thinking can lead to long-term consequences in baseball's complex ecosystem.
Schwarber, the Cubs' fourth overall selection in the 2015 MLB draft, had demonstrated remarkable power potential during his tenure in Chicago. Despite a batting average that never quite dazzled the statisticians, his ability to get on base and drive the ball out of the park was undeniable — evidenced by his .230/.336/.480 slash line and multiple 25+ home run seasons with the Cubs.
What makes this particular personnel decision especially perplexing is its timing. The Cubs chose to part ways with Schwarber following the pandemic-shortened 2020 season — a campaign that saw many players struggle with the unprecedented circumstances. His .188/.308/.393 line that year, while certainly concerning, hardly seemed sufficient reason to completely sever ties with a player of his caliber and potential.
The aftermath of this decision has been nothing short of spectacular — for everyone except the Cubs. Since departing the Windy City, Schwarber has transformed into one of baseball's most feared leadoff hitters, posting an impressive .229/.350/.500 slash line while averaging 41 home runs and 93 RBI per season. His 2024 campaign was particularly noteworthy, setting a record with 14 home runs from the leadoff spot alone.
To compound matters, the Cubs' attempts to fill the void left by Schwarber have met with mixed results at best. The Cody Bellinger experiment — which began promisingly but ultimately ended in a trade — serves as a stark reminder of the organization's ongoing struggle to replicate the offensive firepower they once had.
What's particularly striking about this situation is not just the numbers, impressive as they are, but the broader implications for organizational decision-making in baseball. The Cubs' choice to non-tender Schwarber — essentially letting him walk for nothing — represents a failure to properly evaluate both present value and future potential.
As Schwarber continues to terrorize pitchers from the leadoff spot for the Philadelphia Phillies, the decision looks increasingly shortsighted with each passing season. It's a cautionary tale about patience, player development, and the dangers of making permanent decisions based on temporary circumstances — a lesson that continues to resonate throughout the baseball world.
