Europe Targets Iran’s ‘Rogue Guard’ as Currency Collapses and US Readies Strike

Paul Riverbank, 1/30/2026EU sanctions Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as tensions escalate, rial collapses, and regional conflict looms.

Kaja Kallas got straight to the point. “If you act like a terrorist, you will be treated like one,” the EU’s foreign policy chief declared, grouping the Iranian force together with al-Qaida and Islamic State, a comparison no EU diplomat would have dared voice aloud a few years ago. Her words left little room for Iran's leadership to wriggle.

The EU’s sanctions aren’t just theoretical exercises. In fact, they have already hit hard: fifteen senior Iranian officials and a half-dozen organizations found themselves frozen out of European business. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot urged colleagues to keep the pressure on. “Impunity isn’t an option,” he argued as France stepped past earlier reservations—concerns mostly about the safety of its citizens still held hostage in Iran and the risk to embassy staff.

Much of this sudden urgency is tied to the brutality unfolding far from EU capitals. Human rights groups outside Iran, operating through makeshift satellite links smuggled past censors, have counted over 6,000 deaths since the streets erupted in protest. Videos drip slowly out: a woman screaming as she’s dragged away by masked men, grainy shots of Basij militiamen firing live rounds into crowds. Numbers are blurred by propaganda and a near-total information blackout. Nevertheless, one US-based group, the Human Rights Activists News Agency, lists 6,373 dead, edging close to 6,000 identified as protesters, including many children. Iranian officials’ own tally barely skims the surface—claiming barely over 3,000 deaths and pointing fingers at “terrorists” rather than civilians.

As the crisis spirals, even Iran’s money seems to have lost its bottom. The rial, battered by years of Western penalties, crashed to the latest of many “record” lows—more than 1.6 million rials to the US dollar, for anyone still counting. The new sanctions, experts agree, are measured precisely to wound, targeting any Guard-linked assets nestled in European banks.

Still, building consensus among 27 nations doesn’t happen overnight. Until this week, Paris hesitated—hostages and embassy safety loomed large. But Macron’s administration at last signed off, accelerating the sanctions with a sense that delay could look like weakness.

There’s a knot at the heart of the situation that’s hard for outsiders to grasp. Many young Iranians do their compulsory service in the Revolutionary Guard; landing there is often the result of a blind draw, not devotion to the regime. But it’s the Guard's commanders and elite units making global headlines, not the conscripts quietly counting the days until discharge. And the lines grow hazy: The Guard’s enormous business interests reach from heavy industry to real estate, muddying the waters further.

The repercussions are not Europe’s alone. Regional temperatures are rising by the day. Former President Trump—never one to back away from military threats—warned of devastating retaliation should Iran cross a red line with protest crackdowns. In response, a US aircraft carrier and battle group now prowls the Gulf, underscoring Washington’s willingness to back threats with muscle.

In the wings, a flurry of high-level gatherings plays out. U.S. and Israeli defense officials sift through classified intelligence on Iranian missile sites, while Saudi Arabia, ever watchful, sends defense minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to urge caution and distance itself from any possible attack. Behind closed doors, the Saudis have warned Tehran directly: US bombers won’t be crossing Saudi skies if things go south.

Predictably, Iran has bristled. One senior advisor, in language sharper than usual even for Tehran, warned that an American military strike would bring “all-out, unprecedented” reprisal—with Tel Aviv not the only target in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, Iran has declared live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz—an unmistakable signal, considering a third of the world’s shipped oil passes through those waters.

What’s missing amid all the saber-rattling is any glimpse of real talks. US officials grumble, off the record, that Iran has little appetite for a deal dictated from Washington. Across the Atlantic, European policymakers see no choice but to deepen Iran’s isolation. Kristina Kausch, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund, likened the decision to place the Guard on the terrorist blacklist to a diplomatic last warning—just a step removed from severing ties altogether.

It’s striking to reflect that the Revolutionary Guard’s reach, entrenched after its creation in the wake of Iran’s 1979 revolution, now stretches so far. Once just guardians of a new regime, today the Guard stands both as an instrument of repression and a corporate behemoth inside Iran’s borders.

As the rial tumbles and dissent simmers, all eyes are trained on Tehran’s response. Europe has pushed its chips firmly into the center of the table—and as tensions mount on every front, the only certainty is that Iran’s next move will reverberate well beyond its borders.

It took weeks of wrangling behind closed doors, but the European Union has finally decided to ratchet up the pressure on Iran. After a tense series of meetings in Brussels, EU leaders announced plans to slap sanctions on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard—a calculated move, as the clock ticks on both domestic unrest in Iran and mounting threats from abroad.Kaja Kallas got straight to the point. “If you act like a terrorist, you will be treated like one,” the EU’s foreign policy chief declared, grouping the Iranian force together with al-Qaida and Islamic State, a comparison no EU diplomat would have dared voice aloud a few years ago. Her words left little room for Iran's leadership to wriggle.The EU’s sanctions aren’t just theoretical exercises. In fact, they have already hit hard: fifteen senior Iranian officials and a half-dozen organizations found themselves frozen out of European business. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot urged colleagues to keep the pressure on. “Impunity isn’t an option,” he argued as France stepped past earlier reservations—concerns mostly about the safety of its citizens still held hostage in Iran and the risk to embassy staff.Much of this sudden urgency is tied to the brutality unfolding far from EU capitals. Human rights groups outside Iran, operating through makeshift satellite links smuggled past censors, have counted over 6,000 deaths since the streets erupted in protest. Videos drip slowly out: a woman screaming as she’s dragged away by masked men, grainy shots of Basij militiamen firing live rounds into crowds. Numbers are blurred by propaganda and a near-total information blackout. Nevertheless, one US-based group, the Human Rights Activists News Agency, lists 6,373 dead, edging close to 6,000 identified as protesters, including many children. Iranian officials’ own tally barely skims the surface—claiming barely over 3,000 deaths and pointing fingers at “terrorists” rather than civilians.As the crisis spirals, even Iran’s money seems to have lost its bottom. The rial, battered by years of Western penalties, crashed to the latest of many “record” lows—more than 1.6 million rials to the US dollar, for anyone still counting. The new sanctions, experts agree, are measured precisely to wound, targeting any Guard-linked assets nestled in European banks.Still, building consensus among 27 nations doesn’t happen overnight. Until this week, Paris hesitated—hostages and embassy safety loomed large. But Macron’s administration at last signed off, accelerating the sanctions with a sense that delay could look like weakness.There’s a knot at the heart of the situation that’s hard for outsiders to grasp. Many young Iranians do their compulsory service in the Revolutionary Guard; landing there is often the result of a blind draw, not devotion to the regime. But it’s the Guard's commanders and elite units making global headlines, not the conscripts quietly counting the days until discharge. And the lines grow hazy: The Guard’s enormous business interests reach from heavy industry to real estate, muddying the waters further.The repercussions are not Europe’s alone. Regional temperatures are rising by the day. Former President Trump—never one to back away from military threats—warned of devastating retaliation should Iran cross a red line with protest crackdowns. In response, a US aircraft carrier and battle group now prowls the Gulf, underscoring Washington’s willingness to back threats with muscle.In the wings, a flurry of high-level gatherings plays out. U.S. and Israeli defense officials sift through classified intelligence on Iranian missile sites, while Saudi Arabia, ever watchful, sends defense minister Prince Khalid bin Salman to urge caution and distance itself from any possible attack. Behind closed doors, the Saudis have warned Tehran directly: US bombers won’t be crossing Saudi skies if things go south.Predictably, Iran has bristled. One senior advisor, in language sharper than usual even for Tehran, warned that an American military strike would bring “all-out, unprecedented” reprisal—with Tel Aviv not the only target in the crosshairs. Meanwhile, Iran has declared live-fire military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz—an unmistakable signal, considering a third of the world’s shipped oil passes through those waters.What’s missing amid all the saber-rattling is any glimpse of real talks. US officials grumble, off the record, that Iran has little appetite for a deal dictated from Washington. Across the Atlantic, European policymakers see no choice but to deepen Iran’s isolation. Kristina Kausch, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund, likened the decision to place the Guard on the terrorist blacklist to a diplomatic last warning—just a step removed from severing ties altogether.It’s striking to reflect that the Revolutionary Guard’s reach, entrenched after its creation in the wake of Iran’s 1979 revolution, now stretches so far. Once just guardians of a new regime, today the Guard stands both as an instrument of repression and a corporate behemoth inside Iran’s borders.As the rial tumbles and dissent simmers, all eyes are trained on Tehran’s response. Europe has pushed its chips firmly into the center of the table—and as tensions mount on every front, the only certainty is that Iran’s next move will reverberate well beyond its borders.