Florida Power Struggle: Trump Backs Donalds, DeSantis Ally Collins Enters Fray

Paul Riverbank, 1/13/2026Florida’s GOP gubernatorial race intensifies as Jay Collins enters a crowded, divided field. With Trump backing Byron Donalds and DeSantis staying neutral, this primary will test party loyalties and define the next chapter of Republican leadership in the nation’s largest swing state.

Collins isn’t your stereotypical career office-seeker. His stump speeches lean hard on grit: former Green Beret, lost a leg in Afghanistan, yet pressed on for years afterward before turning to public service. The campaign’s opening salvo made one thing clear: Collin’s military background isn’t a side note, but the headline. “Accountability isn’t just rhetoric where I come from,” he told the press, standing at the sort of flag-bedecked podium Florida politicians favor. “If you mess up, people pay the price. That’s how I lead, and that’s why I view public office as a duty, not a privilege.”

But if Collins prizes tough talk and personal story, the field he’s stepped into is anything but forgiving. At the moment, Congressman Byron Donalds sits atop early polling—thanks in no small part to a golden ticket endorsement from Donald Trump. For Florida’s Republican electorate, that’s no trivial edge. Polling from Tony Fabrizio, a pollster known among party strategists, demonstrates the power of Trump’s blessing: when voters are reminded Donalds is “Trump’s guy,” his support balloons.

Collins doesn’t seem rattled. He’s careful not to posture as a talk-show warrior—he prefers “forged under pressure” to “quick with a quote.” The campaign has been long in the making; Collins’ ads began peppering the state’s airwaves last year, a clear sign of ambition and, if we’re being candid, a test of the waters. As he launched his bid, pundits kept a close eye on any hints from his boss, Governor Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, of course, is looming just off-stage. Barred from another term by term limits, the governor’s influence is undeniable—he chose Collins for the second slot just last year, quick to liken him to “the Chuck Norris of Florida politics.” But when pressed about an endorsement now, DeSantis played coy. “If I weigh in,” he told reporters, “you’ll know. It’ll be my call when and where.” He complimented Collins, then pivoted—a maneuver familiar to watchers of Florida’s executive branch.

This is more than personal ambition; it’s chess played on multiple boards. Trump’s team, for their part, is drawing lines in the sand. Ryan Smith, advising Donalds, summed it up in the way only campaign operatives can: “Anyone running against Byron is an anti-Trump RINO and will be soundly defeated in the Republican primary.” Not exactly an olive branch.

On policy, Collins is as right-of-center as you’d expect from a DeSantis lieutenant: a vocal supporter of gun rights, an opponent of abortion access, no stranger to disputes over energy or immigration. His legislative record bears the DeSantis stamp—backing permitless carry, fighting wind turbines offshore. If there’s daylight between Collins and his former boss, it isn’t visible to the naked eye, though insiders murmur about strains behind closed doors.

Yet, what makes this primary unusually unpredictable are the undercurrents. Fundraising data tells a hard truth—Donalds has stockpiled over $35 million, a figure that leaves would-be rivals blinking. Collins faces the unwelcome challenge of coaxing big donors off the sidelines, all while Trump’s surrogates hover, keeping careful tabs on any perceived disloyalty.

The plot thickens with rumors that Casey DeSantis—yes, the First Lady—might be testing the waters for her own run. Top state Republican Paul Renner, another established ally, is already in. If the DeSantis family’s next act is in question, the governor isn’t tipping his hand: Renner’s move was “ill-advised,” he says, but on Collins, he’s uncharacteristically mum.

Bottom line: Jay Collins is running against momentum, a well-funded rival, and the gravitational pull of party loyalty. He’s framing his campaign not as a personal crusade but as a communal cause. “This is about ‘we,’ not ‘me,’” he insisted in a recent sit-down. With intra-party fractures visible and the national press watching, Florida’s Republican primary looks less like a coronation, more like an identity test for the post-Trump GOP.

With every passing week, the stakes rise. Whoever emerges victorious will be more than the next governor—they’ll help define what it means to lead Florida’s Republicans in a fractured, high-stakes American political landscape.

Florida politics rarely offers a dull moment, and this week’s developments gave even the most seasoned watchers reason to sit up. Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins—a name that’s circulated in Tallahassee circles for months—formally threw his hat into what has quickly become an unruly Republican race for the governor’s mansion.Collins isn’t your stereotypical career office-seeker. His stump speeches lean hard on grit: former Green Beret, lost a leg in Afghanistan, yet pressed on for years afterward before turning to public service. The campaign’s opening salvo made one thing clear: Collin’s military background isn’t a side note, but the headline. “Accountability isn’t just rhetoric where I come from,” he told the press, standing at the sort of flag-bedecked podium Florida politicians favor. “If you mess up, people pay the price. That’s how I lead, and that’s why I view public office as a duty, not a privilege.”But if Collins prizes tough talk and personal story, the field he’s stepped into is anything but forgiving. At the moment, Congressman Byron Donalds sits atop early polling—thanks in no small part to a golden ticket endorsement from Donald Trump. For Florida’s Republican electorate, that’s no trivial edge. Polling from Tony Fabrizio, a pollster known among party strategists, demonstrates the power of Trump’s blessing: when voters are reminded Donalds is “Trump’s guy,” his support balloons.Collins doesn’t seem rattled. He’s careful not to posture as a talk-show warrior—he prefers “forged under pressure” to “quick with a quote.” The campaign has been long in the making; Collins’ ads began peppering the state’s airwaves last year, a clear sign of ambition and, if we’re being candid, a test of the waters. As he launched his bid, pundits kept a close eye on any hints from his boss, Governor Ron DeSantis.DeSantis, of course, is looming just off-stage. Barred from another term by term limits, the governor’s influence is undeniable—he chose Collins for the second slot just last year, quick to liken him to “the Chuck Norris of Florida politics.” But when pressed about an endorsement now, DeSantis played coy. “If I weigh in,” he told reporters, “you’ll know. It’ll be my call when and where.” He complimented Collins, then pivoted—a maneuver familiar to watchers of Florida’s executive branch.This is more than personal ambition; it’s chess played on multiple boards. Trump’s team, for their part, is drawing lines in the sand. Ryan Smith, advising Donalds, summed it up in the way only campaign operatives can: “Anyone running against Byron is an anti-Trump RINO and will be soundly defeated in the Republican primary.” Not exactly an olive branch.On policy, Collins is as right-of-center as you’d expect from a DeSantis lieutenant: a vocal supporter of gun rights, an opponent of abortion access, no stranger to disputes over energy or immigration. His legislative record bears the DeSantis stamp—backing permitless carry, fighting wind turbines offshore. If there’s daylight between Collins and his former boss, it isn’t visible to the naked eye, though insiders murmur about strains behind closed doors.Yet, what makes this primary unusually unpredictable are the undercurrents. Fundraising data tells a hard truth—Donalds has stockpiled over $35 million, a figure that leaves would-be rivals blinking. Collins faces the unwelcome challenge of coaxing big donors off the sidelines, all while Trump’s surrogates hover, keeping careful tabs on any perceived disloyalty.The plot thickens with rumors that Casey DeSantis—yes, the First Lady—might be testing the waters for her own run. Top state Republican Paul Renner, another established ally, is already in. If the DeSantis family’s next act is in question, the governor isn’t tipping his hand: Renner’s move was “ill-advised,” he says, but on Collins, he’s uncharacteristically mum.Bottom line: Jay Collins is running against momentum, a well-funded rival, and the gravitational pull of party loyalty. He’s framing his campaign not as a personal crusade but as a communal cause. “This is about ‘we,’ not ‘me,’” he insisted in a recent sit-down. With intra-party fractures visible and the national press watching, Florida’s Republican primary looks less like a coronation, more like an identity test for the post-Trump GOP.With every passing week, the stakes rise. Whoever emerges victorious will be more than the next governor—they’ll help define what it means to lead Florida’s Republicans in a fractured, high-stakes American political landscape.