GOP’s Final Showdown: Moreno Pushes to Slash Obamacare Premiums

Paul Riverbank, 1/29/2026GOP, Democrats clash over Obamacare subsidies as premiums soar; millions await crucial, kitchen-table relief.

The backdrop? Health insurance premiums are rising, and a sense of foreboding hovers over American families, particularly in states like California where costs have long run hot. The data coming out of Covered California underline the problem: since enhanced subsidies expired, families are seeing premiums leap by hundreds each month. Jessica Altman, who heads the state exchange, candidly warns, “We may start seeing people give up their plans.” She pulls up an example from Los Angeles—a family of four, $90,000 annual income, found their insurance bill explode from $414 to $699 monthly. That’s a staggering $3,420 added to their yearly expenses—money that was probably earmarked for groceries, college savings, or, as many quietly admit, keeping up with rent.

To untangle how we got here, look back to 2021. That was the year Congress temporarily boosted subsidies and, perhaps more consequentially, removed the income ceiling. Suddenly, families earning well over the median wage could get help, capping their insurance costs at no more than 8.5% of income. But those days are gone. The old cut-off is back—right at 400% of the federal poverty level. Translated: if your family earns more than roughly $128,000, you’re on your own. Even those below that marker are offered a slimmer benefit than before.

Now, Moreno is at the table with a counterproposal. The GOP blueprint would extend subsidies, but only up to 700% of the poverty line, arguing that truly high earners don't merit federal help. The extension would last just two years—not three, as some Democrats sought—and would include new checks against fraud, a floor on minimum premiums, and a wider berth for Health Savings Accounts. The message, according to Moreno, is simple: premiums could drop 11% from where they stand, padding both family budgets and federal ledgers. “President Trump would be the first president in my lifetime to go on TV and say he lowered premiums by 11 percent for every American,” Moreno says, hoping the political calculation sways the White House.

On the Democratic side, Senator Angus King remains doggedly optimistic. “I think we’re very close,” King said, quietly confident that some sort of cross-party accommodation is within reach. He notes the group hammering away at the deal is a genuinely bipartisan one—rare oxygen in today’s climate.

But numbers, not slogans, are where the pain lives. Nationally, the cost of health care is devouring a bigger slice of the economy each year—now brushing 18 percent of total GDP. To put that into real terms, that’s an average of $15,000 for every individual. Vulnerable groups—small business owners, gig workers, early retirees—feel the pinch most. Many ended up relying on the enhanced subsidies, which are now simply gone. Covered California notes the vast majority of exchange enrollees neither have employer plans nor qualify for Medicaid.

Some states, notably California, are moving to plug the gap. Sacramento has dedicated $190 million to buffer premium spikes for lower earners, a lifeline for those who would otherwise be pushed out. But it’s a narrow safety net, and many in the squeezed middle still fall through.

The stakes extend beyond health care, touching every facet of family budgeting—from child care to housing costs. Wisconsin state lawmaker Francesca Hong pointedly connects the dots: “We’re in a childcare catastrophe. We haven’t invested enough in this infrastructure.” The implication is clear—health and family economics are not separate lanes, but merging on a crowded policy highway.

None of this is happening in a vacuum. Polls increasingly show rising support for government stepping in, not just in health care, but on issues like universal childcare. Democrats now frame their ambitions in universal terms, looking to bake affordability into the system permanently. “It’s universal policies that will establish permanent affordability,” Hong argues, echoing a wider shift inside her party.

Still, Capitol Hill has never been the place for fairy tale endings. The contest over scope continues: Republicans want focused, time-limited relief. Democrats push for bigger, longer-term programs. Most Americans, frankly, just want the bleeding to stop. They’re tired, frustrated, and worried that the next bill coming due will simply be too much.

Behind the policy points and legislative maneuvers are very real families—parents weighing fraught choices, deciding between doctor visits or other essentials. The outcome of these talks won’t just affect balance sheets in Washington; it will ripple through kitchen tables from California’s sprawling suburbs to Wisconsin’s main streets. As lawmakers inch closer to a deal, the rest of the country waits, hoping for solutions that finally feel within reach.

Senator Bernie Moreno, standing in the solemn rotunda of the Capitol, didn't mince words. "This would be it. This is the best and final offer," he told the crowd of reporters pressing in, voice even but edged with urgency. Moreno has the unenviable task of shepherding the Republican side through fraught negotiations over Obamacare premium subsidies—a pocketbook issue attracting far more attention outside Washington than inside.The backdrop? Health insurance premiums are rising, and a sense of foreboding hovers over American families, particularly in states like California where costs have long run hot. The data coming out of Covered California underline the problem: since enhanced subsidies expired, families are seeing premiums leap by hundreds each month. Jessica Altman, who heads the state exchange, candidly warns, “We may start seeing people give up their plans.” She pulls up an example from Los Angeles—a family of four, $90,000 annual income, found their insurance bill explode from $414 to $699 monthly. That’s a staggering $3,420 added to their yearly expenses—money that was probably earmarked for groceries, college savings, or, as many quietly admit, keeping up with rent.To untangle how we got here, look back to 2021. That was the year Congress temporarily boosted subsidies and, perhaps more consequentially, removed the income ceiling. Suddenly, families earning well over the median wage could get help, capping their insurance costs at no more than 8.5% of income. But those days are gone. The old cut-off is back—right at 400% of the federal poverty level. Translated: if your family earns more than roughly $128,000, you’re on your own. Even those below that marker are offered a slimmer benefit than before.Now, Moreno is at the table with a counterproposal. The GOP blueprint would extend subsidies, but only up to 700% of the poverty line, arguing that truly high earners don't merit federal help. The extension would last just two years—not three, as some Democrats sought—and would include new checks against fraud, a floor on minimum premiums, and a wider berth for Health Savings Accounts. The message, according to Moreno, is simple: premiums could drop 11% from where they stand, padding both family budgets and federal ledgers. “President Trump would be the first president in my lifetime to go on TV and say he lowered premiums by 11 percent for every American,” Moreno says, hoping the political calculation sways the White House.On the Democratic side, Senator Angus King remains doggedly optimistic. “I think we’re very close,” King said, quietly confident that some sort of cross-party accommodation is within reach. He notes the group hammering away at the deal is a genuinely bipartisan one—rare oxygen in today’s climate.But numbers, not slogans, are where the pain lives. Nationally, the cost of health care is devouring a bigger slice of the economy each year—now brushing 18 percent of total GDP. To put that into real terms, that’s an average of $15,000 for every individual. Vulnerable groups—small business owners, gig workers, early retirees—feel the pinch most. Many ended up relying on the enhanced subsidies, which are now simply gone. Covered California notes the vast majority of exchange enrollees neither have employer plans nor qualify for Medicaid.Some states, notably California, are moving to plug the gap. Sacramento has dedicated $190 million to buffer premium spikes for lower earners, a lifeline for those who would otherwise be pushed out. But it’s a narrow safety net, and many in the squeezed middle still fall through.The stakes extend beyond health care, touching every facet of family budgeting—from child care to housing costs. Wisconsin state lawmaker Francesca Hong pointedly connects the dots: “We’re in a childcare catastrophe. We haven’t invested enough in this infrastructure.” The implication is clear—health and family economics are not separate lanes, but merging on a crowded policy highway.None of this is happening in a vacuum. Polls increasingly show rising support for government stepping in, not just in health care, but on issues like universal childcare. Democrats now frame their ambitions in universal terms, looking to bake affordability into the system permanently. “It’s universal policies that will establish permanent affordability,” Hong argues, echoing a wider shift inside her party.Still, Capitol Hill has never been the place for fairy tale endings. The contest over scope continues: Republicans want focused, time-limited relief. Democrats push for bigger, longer-term programs. Most Americans, frankly, just want the bleeding to stop. They’re tired, frustrated, and worried that the next bill coming due will simply be too much.Behind the policy points and legislative maneuvers are very real families—parents weighing fraught choices, deciding between doctor visits or other essentials. The outcome of these talks won’t just affect balance sheets in Washington; it will ripple through kitchen tables from California’s sprawling suburbs to Wisconsin’s main streets. As lawmakers inch closer to a deal, the rest of the country waits, hoping for solutions that finally feel within reach.