Iran's Syrian Empire Crumbles Overnight as New Government Seizes Control

Paul Riverbank, 2/16/2025Iran's decade-long influence in Syria collapses as new government takes control, reshaping Middle East.

In a stark demonstration of how quickly power can shift in the region, Syria's self-styled interim government has issued an unambiguous ultimatum to remaining armed factions: disarm or be excluded from crucial talks about the nation's future. "Anyone who does not lay down their arms, integrate, and hand over the responsibility to the Ministry of Defense in the Syrian government will not have a place," declared Hassan al-Dughaim, the preparatory committee spokesman.

The demand particularly targets the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), marking a critical juncture in the country's post-Assad era. The predominantly Kurdish SDF now faces a difficult choice — surrender its military autonomy or risk political isolation.

Perhaps most striking is the sudden collapse of Iran's carefully constructed military infrastructure in Syria. What took Tehran a decade to build crumbled in mere weeks, leaving behind a trail of hastily abandoned bases and telling evidence of panic. "The order was to just take your backpack and leave," revealed a senior member of an Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary group, speaking to the BBC.

The scene at abandoned Iranian bases tells its own story — moldy food on bunks, discarded uniforms, and even sensitive documents left behind in the rush to evacuate. These bases, once part of Iran's ambitious "security belt" against Israel, now stand as monuments to the swift reversal of fortune for Tehran's Syrian strategy.

Local Syrians' reactions to Iran's departure reveal deep-seated resentment toward Tehran's presence. "This was an occupation. Iranian occupation," stated one resident named Abdo, who had returned to find his house had been used as a military base. The sentiment appears widespread — Syria's new authorities have banned Iranian nationals from entering the country, while maintaining more cordial relations with Russia.

Meanwhile, regional diplomacy is adapting to the new reality. Iraq — traditionally closer to Iran — is making pragmatic moves to engage with Syria's new leadership. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has announced plans to invite Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa to the upcoming Arab League summit in Baghdad, signaling a potential shift in regional alignments.

The transformation of Syria's political landscape has been remarkably swift — HTS fighter Mohammad al Rabbat noted they had expected their operation to take "about a year" but instead found themselves advancing with unexpected speed. The catalyst, many suggest, was the chain of events following Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, which led to increased Israeli strikes against Iranian interests in Syria.

A new seven-member preparatory committee, including diverse figures such as Islamic affairs researcher Dughaim and Christian activist Hind Kabawat, now faces the challenging task of organizing national dialogue conferences. Their success — or failure — in including various factions while maintaining stability will likely determine Syria's immediate future.

As the dust settles on this dramatic transition, the region watches closely. The swift collapse of both Assad's regime and Iran's carefully constructed network of influence has created a new reality — one where old certainties have vanished, and new power structures are still taking shape.

The dramatic reshaping of Syria's political landscape continues to send shockwaves through the Middle East, as the country's new interim government — led by former militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — moves to consolidate power while navigating complex regional dynamics.In a stark demonstration of how quickly power can shift in the region, Syria's self-styled interim government has issued an unambiguous ultimatum to remaining armed factions: disarm or be excluded from crucial talks about the nation's future. "Anyone who does not lay down their arms, integrate, and hand over the responsibility to the Ministry of Defense in the Syrian government will not have a place," declared Hassan al-Dughaim, the preparatory committee spokesman.The demand particularly targets the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), marking a critical juncture in the country's post-Assad era. The predominantly Kurdish SDF now faces a difficult choice — surrender its military autonomy or risk political isolation.Perhaps most striking is the sudden collapse of Iran's carefully constructed military infrastructure in Syria. What took Tehran a decade to build crumbled in mere weeks, leaving behind a trail of hastily abandoned bases and telling evidence of panic. "The order was to just take your backpack and leave," revealed a senior member of an Iran-backed Iraqi paramilitary group, speaking to the BBC.The scene at abandoned Iranian bases tells its own story — moldy food on bunks, discarded uniforms, and even sensitive documents left behind in the rush to evacuate. These bases, once part of Iran's ambitious "security belt" against Israel, now stand as monuments to the swift reversal of fortune for Tehran's Syrian strategy.Local Syrians' reactions to Iran's departure reveal deep-seated resentment toward Tehran's presence. "This was an occupation. Iranian occupation," stated one resident named Abdo, who had returned to find his house had been used as a military base. The sentiment appears widespread — Syria's new authorities have banned Iranian nationals from entering the country, while maintaining more cordial relations with Russia.Meanwhile, regional diplomacy is adapting to the new reality. Iraq — traditionally closer to Iran — is making pragmatic moves to engage with Syria's new leadership. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has announced plans to invite Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa to the upcoming Arab League summit in Baghdad, signaling a potential shift in regional alignments.The transformation of Syria's political landscape has been remarkably swift — HTS fighter Mohammad al Rabbat noted they had expected their operation to take "about a year" but instead found themselves advancing with unexpected speed. The catalyst, many suggest, was the chain of events following Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, which led to increased Israeli strikes against Iranian interests in Syria.A new seven-member preparatory committee, including diverse figures such as Islamic affairs researcher Dughaim and Christian activist Hind Kabawat, now faces the challenging task of organizing national dialogue conferences. Their success — or failure — in including various factions while maintaining stability will likely determine Syria's immediate future.As the dust settles on this dramatic transition, the region watches closely. The swift collapse of both Assad's regime and Iran's carefully constructed network of influence has created a new reality — one where old certainties have vanished, and new power structures are still taking shape.