Red Wall Rattled: Van Epps’ Narrow Trump Victory Sends Shockwaves in Tennessee

Paul Riverbank, 12/4/2025Tennessee GOP stronghold shaken as Van Epps wins narrowly; Democrats surge, reshaping political battleground.

Just two years ago, a Republican victory in this district meant a 21-point drubbing—Democrats barely a footnote. Van Epps, though, had scratched out his win with just a 9-point margin. Some loyalists blamed the awkward timing of the special election—ballots cast days after Thanksgiving when turnout typically sags—but party strategists were already poring over precinct returns. Grins seemed a touch tighter, applause a bit less raucous.

“No matter what the D.C. insiders or liberal media say, this is President Trump’s party. I’m proud to be a part of it and can’t wait to get to work,” Van Epps declared, voice steady but not quite booming. His campaign had leaned hard on Trump’s late endorsement, banking that MAGA energy would stiffen his support. Trump, ever eager to amplify a win, took to social media: “The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him,” he posted, couching the outcome as a triumph against the odds.

Yet the real shake-up came from Aftyn Behn, the Democratic challenger. Dressed in a sparkling rhinestone suit that seemed half victory lap, half protest, Behn sang “9 to 5” to her volunteers before launching into a speech that bristled with determination. “Tonight isn’t the end. It is the beginning of a next chapter of Tennessee and American politics—one of possibility, one of power and one of progress for the people that we love.” Her campaign had never been expected to break through—in fact, when the district boundaries were redrawn three years ago, slicing up Nashville and ceding more territory to rural conservatives, most seasoned operatives called the race unwinnable for Democrats. But here she stood, well within single digits, addressing a room that felt unexpectedly hopeful.

This wasn’t a sleepy local contest. Spending soared: MAGA Inc., Trump’s political machine, poured in nearly $1.7 million—mostly flooding Facebook and YouTube with ads slamming Behn as “too radical.” On the other side, a $1 million injection from House Democrats’ main super PAC pulled big-name national surrogates into Behn’s orbit, from Kamala Harris’s online appearances to the galvanizing efforts of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A Tennessee district race hadn’t seen this level of big-league attention in years.

Both parties, battered but still defiant, pointed to the result as a reason for optimism. Ken Martin, the DNC’s recently-minted chair, didn’t tamp down his glee—telling reporters that Republicans “should be shaking in their boots.” Republican operatives tried to keep the focus on Van Epps’ win itself, though some, like former state GOP chief Chip Saltsman, admitted the margin would force a reckoning: “It’s been a long time since we thought about beating Democrats. This time, we had to pay attention.”

The electoral map was as fractured as the district itself. Behn ran up the score in Nashville’s Davidson County, while Van Epps cleaned up in the outlying counties where church parking lots double as campaign rally sites. Both sides tried to claim momentum. In a call with Trump—amplified through a tele-rally—Van Epps promised, “I will have your back 100%.” Meanwhile, Behn made economic justice the heartbeat of her campaign, repeatedly branding Republican tax policies as giveaways to “the already comfortable,” phrases that seemed to stick in the minds of young urban voters.

Negative ads thickened the airwaves throughout November. Van Epps’ campaign seized on an old clip of Behn calling her own ideas “radical,” spinning it into attack after attack. One retiree at Van Epps’ watch party credited those commercials for swinging him from undecided to “firmly red.” “She just didn’t seem to respect the district,” he said, referencing Behn’s pointed critiques of Nashville’s downtown boosters.

Let’s not forget the oddities: early voting closed ahead of the holiday, leaving organizers scrambling to chase voters back from Thanksgiving tables and Black Friday lines. Redistricting, more than any ad or stump speech, still loomed over everything—a reminder that the rules of the game in Tennessee politics have changed.

So yes, Republicans have kept control of the 7th for now. But the smaller margin tells a bigger story, one that neither side can afford to ignore looking toward the next cycle. If this contest is anything to go by, the 2025 campaign trail in Tennessee may look less predictable—and certainly more expensive—than anyone expected.

The low hum in the packed room signaled anticipation rather than celebration—an uncertainty hanging in the air unusual for this part of Tennessee. Here, in the heart of the 7th District, military veteran Matt Van Epps took the stage to claim a win that looked, at first glance, routine for the GOP’s stronghold. But tonight told a different story; the numbers splashed across the screens had more people whispering than cheering.Just two years ago, a Republican victory in this district meant a 21-point drubbing—Democrats barely a footnote. Van Epps, though, had scratched out his win with just a 9-point margin. Some loyalists blamed the awkward timing of the special election—ballots cast days after Thanksgiving when turnout typically sags—but party strategists were already poring over precinct returns. Grins seemed a touch tighter, applause a bit less raucous.“No matter what the D.C. insiders or liberal media say, this is President Trump’s party. I’m proud to be a part of it and can’t wait to get to work,” Van Epps declared, voice steady but not quite booming. His campaign had leaned hard on Trump’s late endorsement, banking that MAGA energy would stiffen his support. Trump, ever eager to amplify a win, took to social media: “The Radical Left Democrats threw everything at him,” he posted, couching the outcome as a triumph against the odds.Yet the real shake-up came from Aftyn Behn, the Democratic challenger. Dressed in a sparkling rhinestone suit that seemed half victory lap, half protest, Behn sang “9 to 5” to her volunteers before launching into a speech that bristled with determination. “Tonight isn’t the end. It is the beginning of a next chapter of Tennessee and American politics—one of possibility, one of power and one of progress for the people that we love.” Her campaign had never been expected to break through—in fact, when the district boundaries were redrawn three years ago, slicing up Nashville and ceding more territory to rural conservatives, most seasoned operatives called the race unwinnable for Democrats. But here she stood, well within single digits, addressing a room that felt unexpectedly hopeful.This wasn’t a sleepy local contest. Spending soared: MAGA Inc., Trump’s political machine, poured in nearly $1.7 million—mostly flooding Facebook and YouTube with ads slamming Behn as “too radical.” On the other side, a $1 million injection from House Democrats’ main super PAC pulled big-name national surrogates into Behn’s orbit, from Kamala Harris’s online appearances to the galvanizing efforts of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A Tennessee district race hadn’t seen this level of big-league attention in years.Both parties, battered but still defiant, pointed to the result as a reason for optimism. Ken Martin, the DNC’s recently-minted chair, didn’t tamp down his glee—telling reporters that Republicans “should be shaking in their boots.” Republican operatives tried to keep the focus on Van Epps’ win itself, though some, like former state GOP chief Chip Saltsman, admitted the margin would force a reckoning: “It’s been a long time since we thought about beating Democrats. This time, we had to pay attention.”The electoral map was as fractured as the district itself. Behn ran up the score in Nashville’s Davidson County, while Van Epps cleaned up in the outlying counties where church parking lots double as campaign rally sites. Both sides tried to claim momentum. In a call with Trump—amplified through a tele-rally—Van Epps promised, “I will have your back 100%.” Meanwhile, Behn made economic justice the heartbeat of her campaign, repeatedly branding Republican tax policies as giveaways to “the already comfortable,” phrases that seemed to stick in the minds of young urban voters.Negative ads thickened the airwaves throughout November. Van Epps’ campaign seized on an old clip of Behn calling her own ideas “radical,” spinning it into attack after attack. One retiree at Van Epps’ watch party credited those commercials for swinging him from undecided to “firmly red.” “She just didn’t seem to respect the district,” he said, referencing Behn’s pointed critiques of Nashville’s downtown boosters.Let’s not forget the oddities: early voting closed ahead of the holiday, leaving organizers scrambling to chase voters back from Thanksgiving tables and Black Friday lines. Redistricting, more than any ad or stump speech, still loomed over everything—a reminder that the rules of the game in Tennessee politics have changed.So yes, Republicans have kept control of the 7th for now. But the smaller margin tells a bigger story, one that neither side can afford to ignore looking toward the next cycle. If this contest is anything to go by, the 2025 campaign trail in Tennessee may look less predictable—and certainly more expensive—than anyone expected.