Republican House Majority on the Brink as Democrats Score Surprise Wins

Paul Riverbank, 2/1/2026 In a sharply divided House, every special election now has national stakes. With razor-thin margins, new upsets, and more seats in flux, party control hangs by a thread—forcing both Democrats and Republicans to recalibrate strategies and underscoring that, in today’s politics, no seat is truly safe.

For House Speaker Mike Johnson, the consequences aren’t abstract at all. With Menefee heading to Washington, the Republican count in the House drops to 218 — just four seats ahead of the Democrats, who now sit at 214. Every vote, suddenly, feels wired with the tension of a season finale. Johnson, ever the pragmatist, urged his conference to steer clear of unnecessary risks. “No adventure sports, no risk-taking, take your vitamins. Stay healthy and be here,” he reportedly told them, half in jest — but only half. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer upped the ante, reminding GOP members that absences are now a luxury no one can really afford, not unless it’s a matter of life and death.

Anyone used to the city’s more languid pace in summer could feel the uptick in urgency. As Congress stares down the prospect of another government shutdown, Johnson’s job turns into one long tightrope walk. Even a single Republican crossing the aisle or bowing out for a day could change the math completely. That’s not hypothetical. There are still three more House seats either vacant or soon to be fiercely contested, so the margin may get slimmer before it goes the other way.

Next up: New Jersey’s 11th District. The timing is characteristic — a somewhat chaotic Democratic primary, a result of Governor Mikie Sherrill’s elevation to statewide office. In Georgia, the open seat vacated (rather abruptly) by Marjorie Taylor Greene has sparked an unruly scrum of 22 hopefuls, each with their own angle. No candidate hits 50 percent? Expect a runoff, probably drawing on until April. Folks on Capitol Hill are already scribbling names on their whiteboards. Out west, California’s 1st District has its own bittersweet story after Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s sudden passing. Yet that contest, bogged down by a long delay, isn’t until August — and the grumbling from both sides about that wait has been impossible to miss.

Texas, meanwhile, offered another curveball that’s sure to keep party strategists up at night. Taylor Rehmet, a machinist and Air Force veteran who’d mostly been written off as too far behind, stormed back to force (and then win) a state Senate runoff in a district Trump had carried by 17 points. Heavy-hitters like Abbott and Trump himself campaigned for the Republican, but it didn’t make a dent for the local Democrat. State party chair Kendall Scudder, never one for understatement, declared it “a sign voters are tired of Republican nonsense.” An overstatement, maybe — but as with all upsets, it’s less the margin and more the signal that shakes the calculation.

Republicans, for their part, remain unbowed in the places where red runs deep. Greene’s Georgia district is, historically speaking, a Republican fortress. Trump breezed through there in 2020, notching a 37-point margin. The California district is even more ironclad. Party veterans shrug off speculation: special elections can surprise, but they rarely make tradition irrelevant.

Yet even here, in the shadows of what could be called safe seats, the landscape is shifting beneath everyone’s feet. Texas and California are both midway through redistricting. This year’s special races are pegged to the old lines — a small but not trivial comfort for campaign operatives already eyeing what the new boundaries might mean in 2026 and beyond.

For casual observers, it might look like the usual churn of politics, but these contests have an edge that’s difficult to miss. A seat flips, margins collapse, a routine election in Houston ties the hands of Congressional leadership. The upshot? Nobody’s coasting, and the idea that any seat is “guaranteed” feels quaint. Party leaders, meanwhile, are left improvising, fingers crossed, and voters are learning — perhaps not for the first time — that in Washington’s latest drama, every presence in the room has become a plot point with the power to tip the scales.

The sun had barely set over Houston by the time poll workers began stacking up the folding tables, all while inside, talk was already shifting from ballots to what's waiting back in Washington. Christian Menefee, the Harris County attorney — familiar to most for his measured legal skirmishes — managed to outpace Amanda Edwards in the runoff. No wild surprises there: the 18th Congressional District of Texas has been a blue stronghold for decades, and, in truth, there wasn’t much suspense about which party would be celebrating. What had people watching though, was the seat itself — empty for the better part of a year since Rep. Sylvester Turner passed away, leaving a hole that wasn’t just symbolic.For House Speaker Mike Johnson, the consequences aren’t abstract at all. With Menefee heading to Washington, the Republican count in the House drops to 218 — just four seats ahead of the Democrats, who now sit at 214. Every vote, suddenly, feels wired with the tension of a season finale. Johnson, ever the pragmatist, urged his conference to steer clear of unnecessary risks. “No adventure sports, no risk-taking, take your vitamins. Stay healthy and be here,” he reportedly told them, half in jest — but only half. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer upped the ante, reminding GOP members that absences are now a luxury no one can really afford, not unless it’s a matter of life and death.Anyone used to the city’s more languid pace in summer could feel the uptick in urgency. As Congress stares down the prospect of another government shutdown, Johnson’s job turns into one long tightrope walk. Even a single Republican crossing the aisle or bowing out for a day could change the math completely. That’s not hypothetical. There are still three more House seats either vacant or soon to be fiercely contested, so the margin may get slimmer before it goes the other way.Next up: New Jersey’s 11th District. The timing is characteristic — a somewhat chaotic Democratic primary, a result of Governor Mikie Sherrill’s elevation to statewide office. In Georgia, the open seat vacated (rather abruptly) by Marjorie Taylor Greene has sparked an unruly scrum of 22 hopefuls, each with their own angle. No candidate hits 50 percent? Expect a runoff, probably drawing on until April. Folks on Capitol Hill are already scribbling names on their whiteboards. Out west, California’s 1st District has its own bittersweet story after Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s sudden passing. Yet that contest, bogged down by a long delay, isn’t until August — and the grumbling from both sides about that wait has been impossible to miss.Texas, meanwhile, offered another curveball that’s sure to keep party strategists up at night. Taylor Rehmet, a machinist and Air Force veteran who’d mostly been written off as too far behind, stormed back to force (and then win) a state Senate runoff in a district Trump had carried by 17 points. Heavy-hitters like Abbott and Trump himself campaigned for the Republican, but it didn’t make a dent for the local Democrat. State party chair Kendall Scudder, never one for understatement, declared it “a sign voters are tired of Republican nonsense.” An overstatement, maybe — but as with all upsets, it’s less the margin and more the signal that shakes the calculation.Republicans, for their part, remain unbowed in the places where red runs deep. Greene’s Georgia district is, historically speaking, a Republican fortress. Trump breezed through there in 2020, notching a 37-point margin. The California district is even more ironclad. Party veterans shrug off speculation: special elections can surprise, but they rarely make tradition irrelevant.Yet even here, in the shadows of what could be called safe seats, the landscape is shifting beneath everyone’s feet. Texas and California are both midway through redistricting. This year’s special races are pegged to the old lines — a small but not trivial comfort for campaign operatives already eyeing what the new boundaries might mean in 2026 and beyond.For casual observers, it might look like the usual churn of politics, but these contests have an edge that’s difficult to miss. A seat flips, margins collapse, a routine election in Houston ties the hands of Congressional leadership. The upshot? Nobody’s coasting, and the idea that any seat is “guaranteed” feels quaint. Party leaders, meanwhile, are left improvising, fingers crossed, and voters are learning — perhaps not for the first time — that in Washington’s latest drama, every presence in the room has become a plot point with the power to tip the scales.