Retirements Rock Republican Ranks — Dems Smell Opportunity in Wisconsin

Paul Riverbank, 2/4/2026GOP retirements, fundraising shifts, and unpredictable candidates shake up Wisconsin's high-stakes elections.

Let’s start in the state Senate, where, until recently, Republicans held sway with 18 out of 33 seats. Now, two influential GOP lawmakers, Steve Nass of Whitewater and Rob Hutton of Brookfield, have both announced they’ve reached the end of their run. Nass, reflecting on his tenure, didn’t mince words: “It’s time for a new fighter,” he said, invoking the sort of old-school language that’s more at home in a founding father’s letter than a modern press release. Hutton, for his part, signaled a similar passing of the torch.

It’s tempting to shrug this off as the usual churn of politics, but Democrats spotted a tell. The State Senate Democratic Committee didn’t wait long to frame these retirements as a signal that the GOP sees trouble ahead. “Just more evidence Republicans expect to lose the Senate,” they declared—rallying their base and donors. And those donors are showing up: Democrats’ Senate campaign arm raised more than double what their Republican counterparts managed last year, a fact that’s turned more than a few heads at Capitol Square.

But campaign cash in Wisconsin flows like the Fox River—quick, sometimes murky, and prone to sudden shifts. Over on the Assembly side, Republicans built an imposing war chest, out-raising Democrats thanks largely to two billionaire names that keep cropping up in state politics. Diane Hendricks and Elizabeth Uihlein contributed a combined $4 million—an eye-popping sum. Assembly Republicans are now sitting on $5 million, the biggest pile in years.

Democrats, however, aren’t just watching from the bleachers. Their campaign committee just set a fundraising record, and leaders claim it’s evidence that voters have grown weary of the tug-of-war at the capitol. “People really are done with the games,” one Democratic strategist told me over coffee. But with a five-seat deficit, the path to flipping the Assembly is anything but smooth.

Zoom in, and the races start to take on a different look—faces and personalities cut through the static of party talking points. In Wauwatosa, Democrat Robyn Vining has thrown her hat in for the open 5th Senate seat. John Johnson, the go-to political watcher at Marquette Law, described Vining as a “formidable candidate,” referencing her knack for winning tough districts and cultivating a pragmatic, data-driven legislative record.

Some boundaries have shifted dramatically, and incumbency isn’t the shield it once was. Consider Senate District 21. Van Wanggaard, a Republican mainstay, has yet to confirm if he’ll seek another term. Even if he does, Johnson noted his head start may not count for as much with so many new voters inside the district lines after redistricting scrambled the map.

Another battleground: Senate District 17. Incumbent Republican Howard Marklein is ahead in the money chase, but polling and chatter suggest the race still has the potential to break either way—a classic Wisconsin nail-biter. If you’re drawing your brackets, keep a keen eye here.

Democrats are defending their own turf, too: Senate District 31 pits incumbent Jeff Smith against Jesse James, a sitting senator now relocated by redrawn lines. James isn’t an unknown quantity, and the contest tightens accordingly. Johnson still leans toward Smith but isn’t betting the farm.

In the Assembly, personality sometimes outpaces party. Steve Doyle, a La Crosse-area Democrat, clung to his seat last time by a mere 223 votes. He’s rare among his colleagues in one respect—he has a million-dollar campaign stash, almost all from the party machine, aimed at staving off a well-financed GOP challenge. Meanwhile, over in Dodgeville, Republican Todd Novak keeps racking up wins in a district that leans blue. “We run into each other constantly—parades, cattle auctions, you name it,” Johnson remarked. “People just trust Novak.” Sometimes, trust trumps party.

Not everything in this election cycle fits the prototype. Katrina Deville, a candidate eyeing Congress from the 8th District, stands out by self-identification alone—trans, a self-described Satanist, and advocating for single-payer health care and revoking church tax exemptions to fund childcare. Her campaign encourages everyone to show up, no matter their party stripe. “I want honest questions from all sides,” Deville said at a recent library meet-and-greet—a hallmark of the candid style shaking up Wisconsin traditions.

It’s not an overstatement: Every seat is in play, and every little edge counts. Johnson, our patient analyst, boiled it down with a slightly weary smile: “At the end, most voters just look for that D or R, but in some races, the margin is razor-thin and a handshake, a farm event, or a sharp debate quip can make the difference.” The national backdrop won’t fade either. Donald Trump remains a shadow over the ballot, threatening to shift turnout and energy in ways that pollsters struggle to capture until late in the game.

For voters: Election rules haven’t changed a great deal, but confusion always lingers. Some communities will hold primaries as early as February—best to double-check your status online. IDs remain a requirement, but registration is flexible: online, by mail, walk-in, even at the polls come Election Day. Keep your paperwork handy.

Looking forward, the calendar is packed. Wisconsin voters this fall face the sort of ballot that can feel like a civics pop quiz: governor, Congress, the statehouse, local leaders. All in one sweep. The stakes couldn’t be clearer—every conversation, every ad buy, every hand shaken will matter as the leaves turn and voters weigh not just parties, but the ideas and people who want to shape the Badger State’s future.

If you spend any time following Wisconsin politics, you know to expect a healthy dose of unpredictability. This year, though, that familiar thrum has turned into something of a drumbeat—a louder, restless energy that’s shaking up races in ways no pollster could have scripted last winter.Let’s start in the state Senate, where, until recently, Republicans held sway with 18 out of 33 seats. Now, two influential GOP lawmakers, Steve Nass of Whitewater and Rob Hutton of Brookfield, have both announced they’ve reached the end of their run. Nass, reflecting on his tenure, didn’t mince words: “It’s time for a new fighter,” he said, invoking the sort of old-school language that’s more at home in a founding father’s letter than a modern press release. Hutton, for his part, signaled a similar passing of the torch.It’s tempting to shrug this off as the usual churn of politics, but Democrats spotted a tell. The State Senate Democratic Committee didn’t wait long to frame these retirements as a signal that the GOP sees trouble ahead. “Just more evidence Republicans expect to lose the Senate,” they declared—rallying their base and donors. And those donors are showing up: Democrats’ Senate campaign arm raised more than double what their Republican counterparts managed last year, a fact that’s turned more than a few heads at Capitol Square.But campaign cash in Wisconsin flows like the Fox River—quick, sometimes murky, and prone to sudden shifts. Over on the Assembly side, Republicans built an imposing war chest, out-raising Democrats thanks largely to two billionaire names that keep cropping up in state politics. Diane Hendricks and Elizabeth Uihlein contributed a combined $4 million—an eye-popping sum. Assembly Republicans are now sitting on $5 million, the biggest pile in years.Democrats, however, aren’t just watching from the bleachers. Their campaign committee just set a fundraising record, and leaders claim it’s evidence that voters have grown weary of the tug-of-war at the capitol. “People really are done with the games,” one Democratic strategist told me over coffee. But with a five-seat deficit, the path to flipping the Assembly is anything but smooth.Zoom in, and the races start to take on a different look—faces and personalities cut through the static of party talking points. In Wauwatosa, Democrat Robyn Vining has thrown her hat in for the open 5th Senate seat. John Johnson, the go-to political watcher at Marquette Law, described Vining as a “formidable candidate,” referencing her knack for winning tough districts and cultivating a pragmatic, data-driven legislative record.Some boundaries have shifted dramatically, and incumbency isn’t the shield it once was. Consider Senate District 21. Van Wanggaard, a Republican mainstay, has yet to confirm if he’ll seek another term. Even if he does, Johnson noted his head start may not count for as much with so many new voters inside the district lines after redistricting scrambled the map.Another battleground: Senate District 17. Incumbent Republican Howard Marklein is ahead in the money chase, but polling and chatter suggest the race still has the potential to break either way—a classic Wisconsin nail-biter. If you’re drawing your brackets, keep a keen eye here.Democrats are defending their own turf, too: Senate District 31 pits incumbent Jeff Smith against Jesse James, a sitting senator now relocated by redrawn lines. James isn’t an unknown quantity, and the contest tightens accordingly. Johnson still leans toward Smith but isn’t betting the farm.In the Assembly, personality sometimes outpaces party. Steve Doyle, a La Crosse-area Democrat, clung to his seat last time by a mere 223 votes. He’s rare among his colleagues in one respect—he has a million-dollar campaign stash, almost all from the party machine, aimed at staving off a well-financed GOP challenge. Meanwhile, over in Dodgeville, Republican Todd Novak keeps racking up wins in a district that leans blue. “We run into each other constantly—parades, cattle auctions, you name it,” Johnson remarked. “People just trust Novak.” Sometimes, trust trumps party.Not everything in this election cycle fits the prototype. Katrina Deville, a candidate eyeing Congress from the 8th District, stands out by self-identification alone—trans, a self-described Satanist, and advocating for single-payer health care and revoking church tax exemptions to fund childcare. Her campaign encourages everyone to show up, no matter their party stripe. “I want honest questions from all sides,” Deville said at a recent library meet-and-greet—a hallmark of the candid style shaking up Wisconsin traditions.It’s not an overstatement: Every seat is in play, and every little edge counts. Johnson, our patient analyst, boiled it down with a slightly weary smile: “At the end, most voters just look for that D or R, but in some races, the margin is razor-thin and a handshake, a farm event, or a sharp debate quip can make the difference.” The national backdrop won’t fade either. Donald Trump remains a shadow over the ballot, threatening to shift turnout and energy in ways that pollsters struggle to capture until late in the game.For voters: Election rules haven’t changed a great deal, but confusion always lingers. Some communities will hold primaries as early as February—best to double-check your status online. IDs remain a requirement, but registration is flexible: online, by mail, walk-in, even at the polls come Election Day. Keep your paperwork handy.Looking forward, the calendar is packed. Wisconsin voters this fall face the sort of ballot that can feel like a civics pop quiz: governor, Congress, the statehouse, local leaders. All in one sweep. The stakes couldn’t be clearer—every conversation, every ad buy, every hand shaken will matter as the leaves turn and voters weigh not just parties, but the ideas and people who want to shape the Badger State’s future.