Texas GOP Senate Showdown: Paxton, Hunt, Cornyn Locked in Dead Heat

Paul Riverbank, 2/6/2026Texas GOP Senate race: Paxton, Hunt, Cornyn deadlocked, undecided voters hold the real power.

J.L. Partners’ new survey, flagged first by The Post, puts Paxton at 27 percent. Closely shadowing him, House freshman Wesley Hunt edges in at just over 25 percent, with the experienced Cornyn barely a whisker behind. With those numbers barely separated by more than the thickness of a campaign flyer, no one is cashing in victory chips just yet.

But, perhaps what’s most fascinating isn’t the candidates’ standing so much as the restless electorate. More than one-fifth of likely Republican voters are still sitting on the sidelines, watching, weighing, even wavering as the days tick down. An undecided bloc of more than 21 percent looms like a thundercloud on the horizon, threatening to dump its collective weight in one direction at the last moment. Add a poll margin of error running at four points, and the “real” frontrunner appears blurred at best.

Texas, naturally, is seeing the country lean in. There’s a certain irony—Paxton, who once looked nearly untouchable, has watched his cushion erode. Two months back, he was setting the pace with 29 percent. Now that Hunt has entered the race, shaking up what had been a two-horse duel, those percentages have started to churn like dust devils. Cornyn, a Capitol Hill mainstay since the early 2000s, finds himself in the unfamiliar position of fighting for survival rather than defending a presumed legacy.

In the background, the specter of Donald Trump looms. He’s yet to tap any one of the three with his endorsement—a silence that keeps Texas politicos and voters guessing. For MAGA-leaning Republicans, that waiting game only breeds more suspense. Toss in the scenario where any one candidate bows out, and the entire dynamic shifts. If Hunt and Paxton went toe-to-toe alone, the poll hints Hunt would pull ahead convincingly. Should Hunt step aside, then, in a twist, Paxton’s tightest contest would become Cornyn, with Paxton barely ahead by a single slender point.

One detail not lost on campaign insiders is favorability. Hunt, the relative newcomer, carries the highest net positive, especially among hard-core conservatives, eclipsing even Paxton in that coveted MAGA slot. Cornyn, on the other hand, finds those same voters distinctly cool, likely a reflection of his long history of bipartisan deals on infrastructure and even gun legislation—positions that don’t always endear in a primary. Candidly, for someone who once navigated the Senate waters with such ease, Cornyn at risk of a third-place finish is about as surprising as a Texas blue norther throwing hail in July.

Recent days have generally favored Hunt. When voters catch a headline about him, odds are, their view gets warmer, not colder. Paxton and Cornyn, meanwhile, see less upside from the chatter, hinting at a race where fresh faces and recent stories can matter as much as decades of service.

Yet, none of these three is rolling toward the finish line untouched. Hunt, although basking in his popularity, has frustrated House leadership with a series of missed votes—one recent episode saw an important session get delayed as party leaders waited on his arrival to block a Democratic plan on Venezuela. Paxton remains a political survivor: his recent narrow escape from a Senate impeachment conviction doesn’t erase questions over his legal entanglements or the drama surrounding his personal life, which have been the subject of gossip columns more than once. And Cornyn? He’s the familiar face on the Texas scene, but possibly too familiar for a restless electorate.

The math is simple—if nobody pulls far ahead, Texas heads for a runoff, likely to be just as unpredictable, set for late May. Until then, expect campaign stops from the Panhandle to the Gulf, and watch for that crucial undecided slice to finally make up its mind.

If there’s one theme running through this topsy-turvy contest, it’s this: momentum is fickle, and Texas Republicans are keeping their cards close, right up to the wire. Whether Hunt’s steady climb, Paxton’s resilience, or Cornyn’s storied tenure proves the winning hand remains an open—and very Texas—question.

In Texas, the Republican race for Senate has evolved into a gripping contest where certainty has become a rare commodity. The field—much like a high-stakes poker table—is packed tightly, with Ken Paxton, Wesley Hunt, and John Cornyn each holding nearly the same number of chips. No candidate can claim comfortable ground, and even the latest poll seems to underline just how unpredictable this showdown has become.J.L. Partners’ new survey, flagged first by The Post, puts Paxton at 27 percent. Closely shadowing him, House freshman Wesley Hunt edges in at just over 25 percent, with the experienced Cornyn barely a whisker behind. With those numbers barely separated by more than the thickness of a campaign flyer, no one is cashing in victory chips just yet.But, perhaps what’s most fascinating isn’t the candidates’ standing so much as the restless electorate. More than one-fifth of likely Republican voters are still sitting on the sidelines, watching, weighing, even wavering as the days tick down. An undecided bloc of more than 21 percent looms like a thundercloud on the horizon, threatening to dump its collective weight in one direction at the last moment. Add a poll margin of error running at four points, and the “real” frontrunner appears blurred at best.Texas, naturally, is seeing the country lean in. There’s a certain irony—Paxton, who once looked nearly untouchable, has watched his cushion erode. Two months back, he was setting the pace with 29 percent. Now that Hunt has entered the race, shaking up what had been a two-horse duel, those percentages have started to churn like dust devils. Cornyn, a Capitol Hill mainstay since the early 2000s, finds himself in the unfamiliar position of fighting for survival rather than defending a presumed legacy.In the background, the specter of Donald Trump looms. He’s yet to tap any one of the three with his endorsement—a silence that keeps Texas politicos and voters guessing. For MAGA-leaning Republicans, that waiting game only breeds more suspense. Toss in the scenario where any one candidate bows out, and the entire dynamic shifts. If Hunt and Paxton went toe-to-toe alone, the poll hints Hunt would pull ahead convincingly. Should Hunt step aside, then, in a twist, Paxton’s tightest contest would become Cornyn, with Paxton barely ahead by a single slender point.One detail not lost on campaign insiders is favorability. Hunt, the relative newcomer, carries the highest net positive, especially among hard-core conservatives, eclipsing even Paxton in that coveted MAGA slot. Cornyn, on the other hand, finds those same voters distinctly cool, likely a reflection of his long history of bipartisan deals on infrastructure and even gun legislation—positions that don’t always endear in a primary. Candidly, for someone who once navigated the Senate waters with such ease, Cornyn at risk of a third-place finish is about as surprising as a Texas blue norther throwing hail in July.Recent days have generally favored Hunt. When voters catch a headline about him, odds are, their view gets warmer, not colder. Paxton and Cornyn, meanwhile, see less upside from the chatter, hinting at a race where fresh faces and recent stories can matter as much as decades of service.Yet, none of these three is rolling toward the finish line untouched. Hunt, although basking in his popularity, has frustrated House leadership with a series of missed votes—one recent episode saw an important session get delayed as party leaders waited on his arrival to block a Democratic plan on Venezuela. Paxton remains a political survivor: his recent narrow escape from a Senate impeachment conviction doesn’t erase questions over his legal entanglements or the drama surrounding his personal life, which have been the subject of gossip columns more than once. And Cornyn? He’s the familiar face on the Texas scene, but possibly too familiar for a restless electorate.The math is simple—if nobody pulls far ahead, Texas heads for a runoff, likely to be just as unpredictable, set for late May. Until then, expect campaign stops from the Panhandle to the Gulf, and watch for that crucial undecided slice to finally make up its mind.If there’s one theme running through this topsy-turvy contest, it’s this: momentum is fickle, and Texas Republicans are keeping their cards close, right up to the wire. Whether Hunt’s steady climb, Paxton’s resilience, or Cornyn’s storied tenure proves the winning hand remains an open—and very Texas—question.