Trump Effect: 600,000 Immigrants Exit as Border Policies Show Results

Paul Riverbank, 6/20/2025 Recent polling reveals a fascinating paradox in American immigration attitudes: support for legal immigration has surged across party lines, while enforcement remains contentious. The data suggests a maturing public discourse that increasingly distinguishes between legal immigration's benefits and border security concerns.

America's Immigration Paradox: A Shifting Landscape

The nation's stance on immigration has taken a fascinating turn lately, and I've watched it unfold from my usual perch at political rallies and town halls across the country. Last week in Ohio, I spoke with Maria Rodriguez, a second-generation immigrant who runs a successful tech company. "We need smart immigration policy," she told me, "not just tough talk."

She's not alone in that thinking. Recent Fox News polling caught my eye – it shows an unexpected surge in support for legal immigration, especially among Republicans. We're talking about a jump from 35% to 61% in just a year. I've covered immigration for two decades, and this shift is remarkable.

But here's where it gets complicated. The same Americans who increasingly welcome legal immigrants are demanding tougher action on illegal entry. About 56% support deportation efforts – though that's actually down from 67% last winter. I remember watching ICE operations in Los Angeles last month, where the tension between enforcement and community trust was palpable.

The data from the Center for Immigration Studies suggests what they're calling a "Trump effect" – roughly 600,000 immigrants leaving the U.S. workforce since January. But having covered multiple administrations, I've learned to look beyond simple cause-and-effect explanations.

Take Texas, for instance. After all the heated rhetoric about building their own border wall, they've quietly shifted focus. During my visit to Eagle Pass last month, state officials were more interested in discussing Operation Lone Star than wall construction. Sometimes the most telling stories are in what doesn't happen.

ICE itself has become a lightning rod. Their approval numbers – 46% positive, 52% negative – mask deeper divisions I've observed in communities nationwide. At a recent community forum in Arizona, I watched a heated exchange between a Border Patrol agent and a local activist that perfectly captured this national split.

What's particularly striking to me is how Trump maintains 53% approval on border security despite – or perhaps because of – controversial enforcement measures. When the National Guard deployed during those Los Angeles protests, public reaction was mixed at best, with a slight majority saying it made things worse.

From my years covering this beat, I can tell you that immigration policy rarely fits neat partisan boxes. The current landscape shows Americans wrestling with dual desires: maintaining order at the borders while recognizing the vital role of legal immigration in our economy and society.

These aren't just poll numbers – they're reflections of real communities grappling with complex changes. As someone who's walked the border, sat in immigration courts, and talked with families on all sides of this issue, I can say with certainty that the path forward will require more nuance than either party typically offers.

Paul Riverbank is a political analyst and veteran journalist covering immigration and national politics.

America's Immigration Paradox: A Shifting LandscapeThe nation's stance on immigration has taken a fascinating turn lately, and I've watched it unfold from my usual perch at political rallies and town halls across the country. Last week in Ohio, I spoke with Maria Rodriguez, a second-generation immigrant who runs a successful tech company. "We need smart immigration policy," she told me, "not just tough talk."She's not alone in that thinking. Recent Fox News polling caught my eye – it shows an unexpected surge in support for legal immigration, especially among Republicans. We're talking about a jump from 35% to 61% in just a year. I've covered immigration for two decades, and this shift is remarkable.But here's where it gets complicated. The same Americans who increasingly welcome legal immigrants are demanding tougher action on illegal entry. About 56% support deportation efforts – though that's actually down from 67% last winter. I remember watching ICE operations in Los Angeles last month, where the tension between enforcement and community trust was palpable.The data from the Center for Immigration Studies suggests what they're calling a "Trump effect" – roughly 600,000 immigrants leaving the U.S. workforce since January. But having covered multiple administrations, I've learned to look beyond simple cause-and-effect explanations.Take Texas, for instance. After all the heated rhetoric about building their own border wall, they've quietly shifted focus. During my visit to Eagle Pass last month, state officials were more interested in discussing Operation Lone Star than wall construction. Sometimes the most telling stories are in what doesn't happen.ICE itself has become a lightning rod. Their approval numbers – 46% positive, 52% negative – mask deeper divisions I've observed in communities nationwide. At a recent community forum in Arizona, I watched a heated exchange between a Border Patrol agent and a local activist that perfectly captured this national split.What's particularly striking to me is how Trump maintains 53% approval on border security despite – or perhaps because of – controversial enforcement measures. When the National Guard deployed during those Los Angeles protests, public reaction was mixed at best, with a slight majority saying it made things worse.From my years covering this beat, I can tell you that immigration policy rarely fits neat partisan boxes. The current landscape shows Americans wrestling with dual desires: maintaining order at the borders while recognizing the vital role of legal immigration in our economy and society.These aren't just poll numbers – they're reflections of real communities grappling with complex changes. As someone who's walked the border, sat in immigration courts, and talked with families on all sides of this issue, I can say with certainty that the path forward will require more nuance than either party typically offers.Paul Riverbank is a political analyst and veteran journalist covering immigration and national politics.