Trump Effect: Immigration Numbers Plummet as Border Security Approval Soars

Paul Riverbank, 6/20/2025Recent polling reveals a fascinating paradox in American immigration attitudes: growing acceptance of legal immigration across party lines, while maintaining firm stance on illegal entry. The "Trump effect" has demonstrably impacted migration patterns, though enforcement methods remain contentious. This evolving landscape reflects America's complex relationship with immigration policy.

America's Immigration Crossroads: A Complex Reality Emerges

The ground beneath America's immigration debate is shifting in unexpected ways. As I've watched these developments unfold from my desk at the National Policy Institute, it's become clear that we're witnessing more than just policy changes – we're seeing a fundamental transformation in how Americans think about immigration.

Let me paint you a picture that might surprise you. Just last week, I sat down with a Republican voter in Ohio who told me, "You know, Paul, I used to think differently about this whole thing." He's not alone. Recent Fox polling shows a remarkable turnaround – 70% of Americans now see legal immigrants as beneficial to our country. That's not just a statistic; it's a seismic shift in public perception.

But here's where it gets complicated. While Americans are warming to legal immigration, the debate over unauthorized entry remains contentious. I've spent time at both border communities and sanctuary cities, and the reality on the ground defies simple narratives. Yes, 56% still support deportation for those here illegally, but that's down significantly from what we saw in late 2024.

The "Trump effect" – a term I've always found a bit reductive – has nonetheless left its mark. Steven Camarota's research at the Center for Immigration Studies points to nearly 600,000 immigrants leaving the U.S. workforce since January. I've seen the impact firsthand in communities from California's Central Valley to New York's restaurant industry.

The recent ICE raids in Los Angeles tell a particularly thorny story. When National Guard troops rolled into neighborhoods, they didn't just enforce policy – they ignited a powder keg of public reaction. Having covered similar operations during previous administrations, I can tell you this: when 52% of voters say military presence made things worse, it's worth paying attention.

What keeps me up at night is the situation facing TPS holders. We're talking about 900,000 people who've built lives here, many for decades. Karen Tumlin at the Justice Action Center isn't exaggerating when she describes it as "de-legalizing" established residents. I've interviewed families caught in this limbo – their stories would give pause to even the staunchest immigration hardliners.

Trump's numbers on this issue tell their own complex tale. A 53% approval rating on border security while holding 46% overall suggests Americans can separate specific policies from broader performance. In my 20 years covering politics, I've rarely seen such nuanced public opinion on such a heated issue.

Where does this leave us? As someone who's watched immigration policy evolve through multiple administrations, I can say this: we're at a crossroads. The public's growing sophistication on immigration issues suggests we might finally be ready for the nuanced debate this topic deserves. Whether our political system can deliver that debate is another question entirely.

America's Immigration Crossroads: A Complex Reality EmergesThe ground beneath America's immigration debate is shifting in unexpected ways. As I've watched these developments unfold from my desk at the National Policy Institute, it's become clear that we're witnessing more than just policy changes – we're seeing a fundamental transformation in how Americans think about immigration.Let me paint you a picture that might surprise you. Just last week, I sat down with a Republican voter in Ohio who told me, "You know, Paul, I used to think differently about this whole thing." He's not alone. Recent Fox polling shows a remarkable turnaround – 70% of Americans now see legal immigrants as beneficial to our country. That's not just a statistic; it's a seismic shift in public perception.But here's where it gets complicated. While Americans are warming to legal immigration, the debate over unauthorized entry remains contentious. I've spent time at both border communities and sanctuary cities, and the reality on the ground defies simple narratives. Yes, 56% still support deportation for those here illegally, but that's down significantly from what we saw in late 2024.The "Trump effect" – a term I've always found a bit reductive – has nonetheless left its mark. Steven Camarota's research at the Center for Immigration Studies points to nearly 600,000 immigrants leaving the U.S. workforce since January. I've seen the impact firsthand in communities from California's Central Valley to New York's restaurant industry.The recent ICE raids in Los Angeles tell a particularly thorny story. When National Guard troops rolled into neighborhoods, they didn't just enforce policy – they ignited a powder keg of public reaction. Having covered similar operations during previous administrations, I can tell you this: when 52% of voters say military presence made things worse, it's worth paying attention.What keeps me up at night is the situation facing TPS holders. We're talking about 900,000 people who've built lives here, many for decades. Karen Tumlin at the Justice Action Center isn't exaggerating when she describes it as "de-legalizing" established residents. I've interviewed families caught in this limbo – their stories would give pause to even the staunchest immigration hardliners.Trump's numbers on this issue tell their own complex tale. A 53% approval rating on border security while holding 46% overall suggests Americans can separate specific policies from broader performance. In my 20 years covering politics, I've rarely seen such nuanced public opinion on such a heated issue.Where does this leave us? As someone who's watched immigration policy evolve through multiple administrations, I can say this: we're at a crossroads. The public's growing sophistication on immigration issues suggests we might finally be ready for the nuanced debate this topic deserves. Whether our political system can deliver that debate is another question entirely.