Trump Roars Back: 50% Approval Shocks Political Establishment

Paul Riverbank, 12/23/2025Trump hits 50% approval, revealing deep partisan divides and pivotal shifts for 2024 politics.

This wasn’t just a minor blip in the data. Out of 800 people polled—a sample that balances out after you apply the margin of error, just under three and a half points—you see a country that’s not just divided but tightly wound, with partisanship at a simmer. Fifty percent said, yes, the president’s doing a good job. That leaves 41 percent in clear opposition, and a scant 9 percent without an opinion—a number that says the fence is crowded indeed, but not with the undecided.

If you break those numbers apart, the gender split almost draws itself. Men tilt heavily toward approval—59 percent, in fact, are on board with Trump’s decisions so far, while only about a third are ready to disagree. For women, though, another story unfolds: more disapprove than approve, at 47 to 42 percent. This gap between the genders has existed for years, perhaps as long as there have been political polls; it just feels sharper at times like these.

Generationally, the patterns get more nuanced. Younger voters, aged 18-39, are almost perfectly split: 44 percent approve, an equal amount dissent, and a slice—13 percent—prefer to stay out of it. It’s among the middle-aged where Trump’s support surges to 54 percent, with a slimmer, though still positive, majority among those 65 and over.

What makes these results especially striking is how they diverge from other polls. As of Monday, RealClearPolling had Trump underwater, approval at 44 percent and disapproval at 53 percent—a striking difference and a reminder that not all polls are created equal. The methodology, the timing, even the phrasing of questions, can all tilt the outcome.

Partisanship, as always, draws the sharpest line. Fully 84 percent of Republicans give Trump their backing—a predictable but important number. More surprising, perhaps, is the 25 percent of Democrats who offer approval. Even a quarter within the opposing camp counts for something in these fractured times. Independents hover in the middle: 37 percent approve, 41 percent do not, and a striking 22 percent profess no firm stance, perhaps a sign of frustration or simply a desire to opt out of the noise.

Behind the numbers, there are stories—and not just about polling. Some observers credit Trump’s recently touted immigration policies for the boost, arguing that crackdowns have helped reduce crime rates in major cities. One commentator, perhaps voicing the sentiment of many supporters, bluntly tied the drop in crime to the administration’s aggressive removal of undocumented immigrants with criminal records: “Say what you will, but that’s proof enough for me.” On the campaign side, immigration remains a touchstone issue; a recent AmericaFest straw poll saw nearly 90 percent of attendees endorse a moratorium on new immigrants.

None of this occurs in a vacuum. The mood among Republicans, by most appearances, is not only enthusiastic but united. Vice President JD Vance, for example, polled extremely well among potential 2028 contenders, and current Cabinet members enjoy high favorability ratings within the party. All signs point to a GOP base that’s fired up and focused as elections loom.

As for issues of concern, the Republican faithful are zeroed in on fears of radical Islam, unease about socialism, and the economy—a trio that’s as familiar as it is potent. Technology and foreign interference barely register by comparison, suggesting a party still defined by battles of the last decade, not necessarily the next.

For the Democrats, these numbers come as a wake-up call. Gains by Trump among young and older voters, not to mention the middle-aged, leave strategists with narrowing options. If the trend sticks, the path to victory in the looming midterms could become even rockier for the blue team.

Yet, anyone who’s watched enough election cycles will remind you: polls are snapshots, not destiny. A year out, even the sturdiest-seeming figures can melt away with the wrong headline or a new crisis. But as of today, President Trump has reached a milestone that’s impossible to ignore. The meaning behind that figure—50 percent—will no doubt be debated long after the news cycle has moved on.

Ask anyone who follows American politics closely, and they'll tell you: approval ratings are tricky things, prone to wild shifts and sudden turns. Yet, like a thunderclap on a clear day, the latest InsiderAdvantage poll landed with a figure that couldn’t be ignored—President Trump had crossed the 50 percent mark among likely voters. For a sitting president, no less controversial than Trump, it’s the sort of moment that sets off both alarm bells and champagne corks, depending largely on what side of the aisle you find yourself.This wasn’t just a minor blip in the data. Out of 800 people polled—a sample that balances out after you apply the margin of error, just under three and a half points—you see a country that’s not just divided but tightly wound, with partisanship at a simmer. Fifty percent said, yes, the president’s doing a good job. That leaves 41 percent in clear opposition, and a scant 9 percent without an opinion—a number that says the fence is crowded indeed, but not with the undecided.If you break those numbers apart, the gender split almost draws itself. Men tilt heavily toward approval—59 percent, in fact, are on board with Trump’s decisions so far, while only about a third are ready to disagree. For women, though, another story unfolds: more disapprove than approve, at 47 to 42 percent. This gap between the genders has existed for years, perhaps as long as there have been political polls; it just feels sharper at times like these.Generationally, the patterns get more nuanced. Younger voters, aged 18-39, are almost perfectly split: 44 percent approve, an equal amount dissent, and a slice—13 percent—prefer to stay out of it. It’s among the middle-aged where Trump’s support surges to 54 percent, with a slimmer, though still positive, majority among those 65 and over.What makes these results especially striking is how they diverge from other polls. As of Monday, RealClearPolling had Trump underwater, approval at 44 percent and disapproval at 53 percent—a striking difference and a reminder that not all polls are created equal. The methodology, the timing, even the phrasing of questions, can all tilt the outcome.Partisanship, as always, draws the sharpest line. Fully 84 percent of Republicans give Trump their backing—a predictable but important number. More surprising, perhaps, is the 25 percent of Democrats who offer approval. Even a quarter within the opposing camp counts for something in these fractured times. Independents hover in the middle: 37 percent approve, 41 percent do not, and a striking 22 percent profess no firm stance, perhaps a sign of frustration or simply a desire to opt out of the noise.Behind the numbers, there are stories—and not just about polling. Some observers credit Trump’s recently touted immigration policies for the boost, arguing that crackdowns have helped reduce crime rates in major cities. One commentator, perhaps voicing the sentiment of many supporters, bluntly tied the drop in crime to the administration’s aggressive removal of undocumented immigrants with criminal records: “Say what you will, but that’s proof enough for me.” On the campaign side, immigration remains a touchstone issue; a recent AmericaFest straw poll saw nearly 90 percent of attendees endorse a moratorium on new immigrants.None of this occurs in a vacuum. The mood among Republicans, by most appearances, is not only enthusiastic but united. Vice President JD Vance, for example, polled extremely well among potential 2028 contenders, and current Cabinet members enjoy high favorability ratings within the party. All signs point to a GOP base that’s fired up and focused as elections loom.As for issues of concern, the Republican faithful are zeroed in on fears of radical Islam, unease about socialism, and the economy—a trio that’s as familiar as it is potent. Technology and foreign interference barely register by comparison, suggesting a party still defined by battles of the last decade, not necessarily the next.For the Democrats, these numbers come as a wake-up call. Gains by Trump among young and older voters, not to mention the middle-aged, leave strategists with narrowing options. If the trend sticks, the path to victory in the looming midterms could become even rockier for the blue team.Yet, anyone who’s watched enough election cycles will remind you: polls are snapshots, not destiny. A year out, even the sturdiest-seeming figures can melt away with the wrong headline or a new crisis. But as of today, President Trump has reached a milestone that’s impossible to ignore. The meaning behind that figure—50 percent—will no doubt be debated long after the news cycle has moved on.