Trump's China Strategy: Diplomacy First, Tariffs Ready
Glenn Gilmour, 1/19/2025Trump shifts China strategy: diplomatic outreach while maintaining tough stance on trade and tariffs.
In a dramatic shift from his campaign rhetoric, President-elect Donald Trump has launched an unexpected diplomatic offensive toward China — signaling his desire to visit Beijing within his first 100 days in office while simultaneously maintaining his hardline stance on trade and economic policies.
The complex dance between cooperation and confrontation emerged Friday when Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first direct communication since November's election. "I just spoke to Chairman Xi Jinping of China," Trump announced on Truth Social, characterizing the call as "very good" for both nations. "We discussed balancing Trade, Fentanyl, TikTok, and many other subjects."
Behind the scenes, however, a more nuanced strategy is taking shape. Sources familiar with the discussions tell the Wall Street Journal that Trump has expressed keen interest in an early presidential visit to Beijing — a move that would mark a stunning departure from his aggressive campaign positions. The diplomatic overture comes even as Trump maintains his pledge to impose sweeping tariffs on Chinese imports.
The president-elect's approach reflects a delicate balancing act: while publicly promising to slap China with 25% tariffs on his first day in office — plus additional penalties for fentanyl trafficking — Trump appears to be laying groundwork for a more sophisticated engagement strategy.
The diplomatic chess match has already yielded unprecedented moves. While Xi declined Trump's invitation to Monday's inauguration, China will send Vice President Han Zheng — marking the first time a senior Chinese official of this rank has attended a U.S. presidential inauguration. Beijing's ambassador to Washington, Xie Feng, will also be present, underscoring the weight China places on this transition moment.
Yet beneath these diplomatic niceties, tectonic plates are shifting. Trump's campaign promises loom large — including threats of universal tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, with possible penalties up to 100% for BRICS alliance countries that "undermine the US dollar." These economic weapons remain loaded, even as both sides explore paths to détente.
The emerging dynamic has triggered intense speculation across the political spectrum. Liberal outlets like The New Republic are sounding alarm bells about "Trump 2.0," warning of a more strategically sophisticated administration that learned from its first term. "Trump already knows certain leverage points in the federal bureaucracy that took him months or years to locate the first time around," writes Michael Tomasky, highlighting concerns about the president-elect's enhanced operational capabilities.
Both nations appear to be establishing new channels for strategic communication — a development confirmed by Chinese officials following Friday's call. Sources indicate that beyond a potential Beijing visit, discussions are underway about hosting Xi at the White House, echoing their 2017 meeting at Mar-a-Lago.
As Monday's inauguration approaches, the stakes couldn't be higher. Trump's ability to navigate this complex relationship — balancing tough economic measures with diplomatic engagement — may define not only US-China relations but the global economic landscape for years to come. With issues ranging from trade imbalances to fentanyl trafficking demanding immediate attention, both leaders appear to recognize the necessity of maintaining open lines of communication, even as they prepare for potential confrontation on multiple fronts.
