Wake-Up Call: Republicans Risk Impeachment Circus With Low Voter Turnout

Paul Riverbank, 11/21/2025Republicans risk losing ground as Democrats dominate turnout—every ballot now matters more than ever.

There’s a moment that went largely unremarked on national cable, but it’s worth pausing over. Harry Enten, the numbers man over at CNN, recently flagged a Marquette Law School survey whose results raised not just eyebrows but, for Republican strategists, a few heart rates as well. The poll found Democrats with a nine-point turnout advantage among voters who say they’re absolutely certain about casting a ballot—53 to 44 percent. That kind of margin isn’t just “interesting”—it’s a flashing red warning sign for the GOP.

In earlier years—think 2006, 2010, up through 2022—Republicans generally had the energy edge. They reliably polled higher on the intention-to-vote questions, and that consistently translated into midterm or off-cycle wins. Suddenly, in this coming cycle, it’s the Democrats counting on a more fired-up base. Old precedents, it seems, are being set aside.

Turnout stories aren’t static words in a spreadsheet—they show up in unpredictable ways. Take New Jersey this fall: Incumbent Mikie Sherrill didn’t just squeak through—she pulled more than 440,000 votes above what her predecessor managed in prior cycles. Virginia saw similar patterns. Pollsters had forecast closer outcomes, but election night told a different tale. Those gaps don’t emerge out of thin air; they’re the result of organizing, frustration, hope, fear, and, crucially, volunteers showing up on doorsteps.

Cliff Maloney, a Republican organizer who’s seen battles both up close in small towns and under the bright lights of national races, put it bluntly after digesting the latest losses. “We charged into enemy territory, and still, too many of our own stayed home,” he lamented in a recent message to party supporters. The dangerous thing, Maloney argues, is the illusion that victories are inevitable—or that someone else will do the hard work.

And this isn’t just about Washington headlines. When Republican turnout slips, mayorships and town council seats fall into new hands with very different ideas about how to run things. Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York City, on a platform that’s openly to the left of anything the city’s seen in generations, is already changing not just talking points but real policies: rent control ramped up; talk of government-run groceries taking root. For some city dwellers, these shifts are symbols of progress. Others, including many in the business community, see them as straws that might finally break the camel’s back.

You don’t have to look far for numbers that back up those worries. When giants like JPMorgan Chase and Citadel decide to move thousands of staffers—and their sizable paychecks—somewhere friendlier for taxes and regulation, it’s not just paper bookkeeping. It’s a tax base that shrinks, budgets that get tighter, and families left staring at service cuts or tax hikes they can’t afford.

It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see how those local tremors ripple out. In battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, where Governor Josh Shapiro’s star is rising—some say with an eye on the White House—a single lost statehouse or shift in turnout can tangle up not only state politics but national ambitions. Republicans see openings but know there’s no shortcut: the lesson from recent Democratic successes is relentless ground game, not just slogans and TV spots.

Frankly, Democratic organizers have built a machine over decades: early voting, clever use of mail ballots, local events, coalition after coalition. Republicans, Maloney insists, can’t simply imitate that structure; they have to outwork it, match discipline with creativity, and finally, address their own Achilles’ heel—low-propensity voters. There’s no sugarcoating it: the GOP has a turnout problem, especially when the national spotlight isn’t blazing.

Organizations like Early Vote Action, Turning Point Action, and America First Works are being tasked with a transformation that goes beyond a single election. The formula, Maloney says, is simple but not easy. “When we’re out there, knocking, collecting ballots, we can win. But not if we leave it to chance.”

There’s little time to waste. The machinery of the next race is already humming; canvassers, strategists, and donors know that political momentum can be squandered—or seized—long before polls open. Republicans, now more than ever, have a decision to make: wake up, reorganize, and raise their game on turnout, or stand by as more territory, more city halls, and possibly the national narrative itself, slip away.

If there’s a lesson in these numbers—and the scramble they’ve unleashed—it’s that the age of easy predictions is over. Every district matters, every ballot counts. Ignore the math, and watch the consequences pile up, one election at a time.

It’s hard not to sense a shift in the political air lately—one that’s rapidly becoming unmistakable not just in Washington, but across living rooms, city council chambers, and campaign offices nationwide. After years of familiar rhythms at the ballot box, the landscape suddenly feels less predictable; you can hear it in the way local activists talk and see it in the turnout numbers trickling in from last season's elections.There’s a moment that went largely unremarked on national cable, but it’s worth pausing over. Harry Enten, the numbers man over at CNN, recently flagged a Marquette Law School survey whose results raised not just eyebrows but, for Republican strategists, a few heart rates as well. The poll found Democrats with a nine-point turnout advantage among voters who say they’re absolutely certain about casting a ballot—53 to 44 percent. That kind of margin isn’t just “interesting”—it’s a flashing red warning sign for the GOP.In earlier years—think 2006, 2010, up through 2022—Republicans generally had the energy edge. They reliably polled higher on the intention-to-vote questions, and that consistently translated into midterm or off-cycle wins. Suddenly, in this coming cycle, it’s the Democrats counting on a more fired-up base. Old precedents, it seems, are being set aside.Turnout stories aren’t static words in a spreadsheet—they show up in unpredictable ways. Take New Jersey this fall: Incumbent Mikie Sherrill didn’t just squeak through—she pulled more than 440,000 votes above what her predecessor managed in prior cycles. Virginia saw similar patterns. Pollsters had forecast closer outcomes, but election night told a different tale. Those gaps don’t emerge out of thin air; they’re the result of organizing, frustration, hope, fear, and, crucially, volunteers showing up on doorsteps.Cliff Maloney, a Republican organizer who’s seen battles both up close in small towns and under the bright lights of national races, put it bluntly after digesting the latest losses. “We charged into enemy territory, and still, too many of our own stayed home,” he lamented in a recent message to party supporters. The dangerous thing, Maloney argues, is the illusion that victories are inevitable—or that someone else will do the hard work.And this isn’t just about Washington headlines. When Republican turnout slips, mayorships and town council seats fall into new hands with very different ideas about how to run things. Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York City, on a platform that’s openly to the left of anything the city’s seen in generations, is already changing not just talking points but real policies: rent control ramped up; talk of government-run groceries taking root. For some city dwellers, these shifts are symbols of progress. Others, including many in the business community, see them as straws that might finally break the camel’s back.You don’t have to look far for numbers that back up those worries. When giants like JPMorgan Chase and Citadel decide to move thousands of staffers—and their sizable paychecks—somewhere friendlier for taxes and regulation, it’s not just paper bookkeeping. It’s a tax base that shrinks, budgets that get tighter, and families left staring at service cuts or tax hikes they can’t afford.It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see how those local tremors ripple out. In battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, where Governor Josh Shapiro’s star is rising—some say with an eye on the White House—a single lost statehouse or shift in turnout can tangle up not only state politics but national ambitions. Republicans see openings but know there’s no shortcut: the lesson from recent Democratic successes is relentless ground game, not just slogans and TV spots.Frankly, Democratic organizers have built a machine over decades: early voting, clever use of mail ballots, local events, coalition after coalition. Republicans, Maloney insists, can’t simply imitate that structure; they have to outwork it, match discipline with creativity, and finally, address their own Achilles’ heel—low-propensity voters. There’s no sugarcoating it: the GOP has a turnout problem, especially when the national spotlight isn’t blazing.Organizations like Early Vote Action, Turning Point Action, and America First Works are being tasked with a transformation that goes beyond a single election. The formula, Maloney says, is simple but not easy. “When we’re out there, knocking, collecting ballots, we can win. But not if we leave it to chance.”There’s little time to waste. The machinery of the next race is already humming; canvassers, strategists, and donors know that political momentum can be squandered—or seized—long before polls open. Republicans, now more than ever, have a decision to make: wake up, reorganize, and raise their game on turnout, or stand by as more territory, more city halls, and possibly the national narrative itself, slip away.If there’s a lesson in these numbers—and the scramble they’ve unleashed—it’s that the age of easy predictions is over. Every district matters, every ballot counts. Ignore the math, and watch the consequences pile up, one election at a time.