Xi Defies West: China's Leader Doubles Down on Putin Alliance

Paul Riverbank, 3/31/2025China and Russia forge complex alliance amid global tensions, despite conflicting interests.

The Dance of Dragons and Bears: Unpacking the Complex Moscow-Beijing Alliance

Having covered international relations for over two decades, I've rarely seen a diplomatic partnership quite as intriguing as the one unfolding between Moscow and Beijing. Last week's meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Moscow wasn't just another diplomatic photo-op – it marked a significant shift in global power dynamics.

I watched with particular interest as Xi spent four and a half hours in "informal" talks with Putin. The casual framing of such a lengthy discussion speaks volumes about the relationship they're cultivating. Their subsequent signing of multiple agreements might seem like standard diplomatic procedure, but it's the timing that catches my eye – Russia, increasingly isolated over Ukraine, desperately needs friends with deep pockets.

But here's where it gets interesting. While Western leaders like Rep. Michael McCaul rush to label this as China "choosing sides," the reality I'm seeing on the ground is far messier. Take Africa, for instance. Just last month, I spoke with several Chinese investors who expressed frustration over Russian military contractors disrupting their mining operations in the Central African Republic. One executive, speaking off the record, called it a "complete nightmare."

The numbers tell their own story. China-Africa trade has hit $295 billion this year, while Russian involvement mainly centers around military contracts and political maneuvering. It's like watching two partners in a dance repeatedly stepping on each other's toes.

Ukraine remains the elephant in the room. China's 12-point peace plan landed with all the impact of a feather pillow in Western capitals. Secretary Blinken's warning about not being "fooled by tactical moves" reflects a deep-seated skepticism I've encountered in diplomatic circles from Washington to Brussels.

Yet Russia can't afford to be picky about its dance partners right now. The trade figures are telling – $190 billion in bilateral trade with China last year speaks to a relationship born of necessity as much as choice. Russian Deputy PM Overchuk's recent statement about balanced relationships sounds more like wishful thinking than reality.

Looking ahead, I'm particularly concerned about how this partnership might evolve. During a recent conference in Singapore, Chris Alden from LSE raised a point that stuck with me: China's long-term stability interests might eventually clash with Russia's more opportunistic approach. The question isn't if this will create tensions, but when.

What we're witnessing isn't just a simple alliance – it's a complex dance of convenience, necessity, and sometimes conflicting ambitions. As someone who's watched global politics reshape itself repeatedly over the years, I can tell you this: the Russia-China partnership will likely define much of this century's international relations, for better or worse.

But then again, in this business, tomorrow's certainties have a funny way of becoming next week's outdated assumptions.

The Dance of Dragons and Bears: Unpacking the Complex Moscow-Beijing AllianceHaving covered international relations for over two decades, I've rarely seen a diplomatic partnership quite as intriguing as the one unfolding between Moscow and Beijing. Last week's meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Moscow wasn't just another diplomatic photo-op – it marked a significant shift in global power dynamics.I watched with particular interest as Xi spent four and a half hours in "informal" talks with Putin. The casual framing of such a lengthy discussion speaks volumes about the relationship they're cultivating. Their subsequent signing of multiple agreements might seem like standard diplomatic procedure, but it's the timing that catches my eye – Russia, increasingly isolated over Ukraine, desperately needs friends with deep pockets.But here's where it gets interesting. While Western leaders like Rep. Michael McCaul rush to label this as China "choosing sides," the reality I'm seeing on the ground is far messier. Take Africa, for instance. Just last month, I spoke with several Chinese investors who expressed frustration over Russian military contractors disrupting their mining operations in the Central African Republic. One executive, speaking off the record, called it a "complete nightmare."The numbers tell their own story. China-Africa trade has hit $295 billion this year, while Russian involvement mainly centers around military contracts and political maneuvering. It's like watching two partners in a dance repeatedly stepping on each other's toes.Ukraine remains the elephant in the room. China's 12-point peace plan landed with all the impact of a feather pillow in Western capitals. Secretary Blinken's warning about not being "fooled by tactical moves" reflects a deep-seated skepticism I've encountered in diplomatic circles from Washington to Brussels.Yet Russia can't afford to be picky about its dance partners right now. The trade figures are telling – $190 billion in bilateral trade with China last year speaks to a relationship born of necessity as much as choice. Russian Deputy PM Overchuk's recent statement about balanced relationships sounds more like wishful thinking than reality.Looking ahead, I'm particularly concerned about how this partnership might evolve. During a recent conference in Singapore, Chris Alden from LSE raised a point that stuck with me: China's long-term stability interests might eventually clash with Russia's more opportunistic approach. The question isn't if this will create tensions, but when.What we're witnessing isn't just a simple alliance – it's a complex dance of convenience, necessity, and sometimes conflicting ambitions. As someone who's watched global politics reshape itself repeatedly over the years, I can tell you this: the Russia-China partnership will likely define much of this century's international relations, for better or worse.But then again, in this business, tomorrow's certainties have a funny way of becoming next week's outdated assumptions.